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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, February 17, 2025
Heavy snowfall and drifting by strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry. The danger is HIGH on drifted upper-elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast, where large natural avalanches are likely. There is CONSIDERABLE danger on upper and mid-elevation slopes facing every direction, and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches up to 3 feet deep on slopes steeper than 30°. With significantly less recent accumulations, heightened conditions exist in low elevation terrain, where small human-triggered avalanches are possible.
  • Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel today. Avoid travel in drifted upper elevation avalanche terrain, and stay clear of avalanche runouts.
  • The avalanche danger is complex; safe terrain choices are your best bet today. You'll find excellent deep powder riding conditions in meadows and low-angle terrain (less than 30°)
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Weather and Snow
The Logan area mountains picked up close to 5 inches of SWE (snow water equivalent) in the past 84 hours. Strong winds from the southwest and west created deep drifts and wind slabs in upper and mid-elevation terrain. The added weight to the snowpack significantly increased the avalanche danger. Recent avalanches failed on weak layers within the new snow, but there are also a few persistent weak layers underlying the new snow. It's impossible to know which weak layer will fail when stressed enough, but it really doesn't matter. We have a complicated hazard today, so the best strategy is to stay on slopes less than 30 degrees and out from under steeper terrain.
-The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet reports several inches of new snow with 1.6 inches of SWE in the last 24 hours and 4.9 inches of SWE in the past 84 hours. It's 24° F, with 94 inches of total snow. The Card Canyon weather station at 8800 feet reports around 2 inches of new snow. It's 20° F, with 65 inches of total snow.
Winds on Logan Peak are blowing 20-30 mph from the west, with an overnight gust of 53 mph. It's 18°F. At 9500 feet, Paris Peak it's 17° F, with winds blowing 7 to 12 mph from the southwest.
The National Weather Service has continued a Winter Weather Advisory from through noon Tuesday. Expect heavy snowfall at times today, with 5 to 9 inches of accumulation possible. High temperatures at 8500' will top out around 27° F. Gusty winds blowing from the west 13 to 18 mph, with gusts in the 30s are expected. The storm continues tonight and through tomorrow morning, with another 6 to 12 inches possible and continuing gusty winds from the west. Unsettled weather will continue through the work week.
Thank you for reading our forecasts before heading out into the backcountry - we've had four avalanche fatalities this season and do not want anyone else to die in an avalanche.
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
Over the weekend, we received many reports of natural and human-triggered small to medium-sized soft slab avalanches. We observed numerous large natural avalanches in the Wellsvilles, which occurred overnight Thursday through early Saturday morning. Some of these were well connected and ran over 2500', hitting Maple Bench above Mendon.
Read about all avalanches and observations in the Logan Zone HERE.
***Remember, the information you share about avalanches you see or trigger in the backcountry could save lives.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People are likely to trigger dangerous wind slab avalanches, consisting of drifted storm snow, in wind exposed terrain on many upper and mid-elevation slopes. Natural cornice falls and large wind slab avalanches are also likely as a tremendous amount of fresh snow has drifted into avalanche starting zones.
  • Wind slabs are stiffer than surrounding snow, and they are smooth, rounded and chalky looking, and can sound hollow, like a drum when you move around on them.
  • Wind slabs will be found on the lee side of major ridges and corniced slopes facing northwest through southeast, with the majority facing the east half of the compass.
  • Drifts and stiff slabs of wind-drifted snow also exist on all aspects in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, scoops, and cliff bands.
  • Cracking and whumpfs are sure signs of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow are likely on steep slopes in upper and mid-elevation terrain. People are likely to trigger avalanches on slopes steeper than about 30°, and avalanches could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below steep slopes. Copious amounts of new snow blanket the range and, having accumulated on top of multiple weak layers, it's hard to know which slopes are the most tenuous. Recent sizable avalanches have also failed on weak layers within the new snow. Your best strategy today is to stick with low-angle terrain and meadows not connected to steeper terrain.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Large and dangerous avalanches stepping down into older snow on one of several buried persistent weak layers are likely, especially in areas with shallower snow and poor snow structure. One suspect layer is found right on top of a dirty melt-freeze crust from the warm spell at the beginning of February.
  • Audible collapses (whumpfs) and shooting cracks are sure signs of instability, but these may not be present when avalanches occur.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below steep slopes.
Additional Information
On Saturday, I could see evidence of numerous natural avalanches in the Wellsville Range. This one in North Shumway is on an east-southeast facing slope.
On Saturday, February 8, a skier was killed by an avalanche in the Salt Lake Area Mountains. Photo below. We have completed our report and our hearts go out to the family, friends, and all who are affected by this tragic accident.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-Remember the information you provide could save lives, especially if you see or trigger an avalanche. To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Receive forecast region-specific text message alerts to receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings. Sign up and update your preferences HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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