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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, December 28, 2021
Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry, and people should continue to avoid travel in avalanche terrain.
The danger is HIGH at mid and upper elevations on slopes facing the north half of the compass, where dangerous avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer near the ground are likely. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes at all elevations, and people are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow in steep terrain. Loose new snow and small soft storm slab avalanches are possible on any steep slope with significant accumulations of new snow.
  • Avoid travel on or below backcountry slopes steeper than about 30°
Low
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH WITH DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.
AN AVALANCHE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE.
HEAVY DENSE SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Special Announcements
Avalanche conditions are very dangerous in the backcountry, and we are worried about an accident happening this week. When we look at accidents, this winter's weather pattern matches what we see time and time again. Early season snow (October & early November) followed by a dry period (November and first week of December) that weakens the snowpack followed by a stormy period that builds a slab and adds stress to the weak layers underneath.
  • The outlook for safer conditions in the near future is good, but for now, please ask your friends and riding partners to be patient and not let powder fever lure them into avalanche terrain.
Weather and Snow
Yesterday, 8 additional inches of snow accumulated at the 8400' Tony Grove Lake Snotel, and the station reports 4.8" of SWE since Thursday morning (12-23-2021). After drifting snow at all elevations yesterday, southwest wind eased overnight, and this morning it's blowing from the west around 25 mph with gusts around 40 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. I'm reading 3°F at Tony Grove and -5°F at Logan Peak this morning.
Expect diminishing snowfall, moderate west winds, and very cold temperatures in the mountains today, with steady temperatures around 4°F at 8500', 16 to 22 mph west winds on the ridges and wind chill values around -19°F!.
Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry and large avalanches are likely. People should continue to avoid travel in avalanche terrain and stay off and out from under steep slopes including obvious or historic avalanche paths.
Recent Avalanches
An observer reports viewing a recent natural avalanche near Wilderness Peak up in Franklin Basin, and I could see evidence of some recent natural activity in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. No other avalanches were reported yesterday, but that doesn't mean there weren't any. Clouds and snowfall have made it hard to see many suspect slide paths for the last several days.
  • Please report any evidence of natural avalanches you come across.
Check HERE for all the latest observations and avalanche activity.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous deep slab avalanches breaking on a persistent weak layer near the ground are likely today. This layer of weak, sugary facets can be found in north facing terrain 6-12 inches above the ground just above a hard ice crust that caps old snow from October and early November. Avalanches failing on this layer will likely be 3 to 5 feet deep and may break hundreds of feet across. Avalanches could be triggered remotely from a distance, or worse, from below.
  • Audible collapses or "whumpfs" and shooting cracks are red flags indicating unstable snow and a lurking persistent weak layer.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds blowing from the south, southwest, and west have been transporting tremendous amounts of snow during the last several days. Yesterday the winds dropped down into the terrain, and we observed significant drifting at all elevations.
  • These winds drifted snow directly onto slopes that have a persistent weak layer of sugary facets near the ground. Wind slabs will make avalanches breaking on the facets larger, deeper, and more deadly.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow are also possible where there is no apparent faceted persistent weak layer. Avalanches at any elevation could fail on a density change within drifted new snow or on a thin, not-so-obvious weak layer.
Avoid drifted slopes at all elevations where avalanches are likely to occur.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow may produce loose snow or soft slab avalanches in steep terrain at all elevations today. Be careful of trees or other terrain traps below you if you venture onto a steep slope with significant accumulations of new snow.
Additional Information
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
  • Be very careful, keep your speed down, and stay in control. Encounters with shallowly buried rocks or down trees in the early season have led to many season-ending injuries.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
  • Check out all the upcoming education classes and clinics HERE.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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