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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, December 20, 2024
There is CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger at upper elevations on previously drifted slopes facing northwest through east. People are likely to trigger dangerous slab avalanches failing on a widespread sugary, persistent weak layer buried 1 to 3 feet deep. Avalanches could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below!
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are required. Avoid previously drifted slopes steeper than 30°
Low
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Find participating shops and more info HERE.
Weather and Snow
Drifted heavy snow from two storms between December 14 and 17 overloaded upper-elevation slopes plagued by weak, faceted snow. Upper elevation slopes in the northern half of the Logan Zone picked up about two feet of heavy new snow, and the Tony Grove Snotel reported around 3.4 inches of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent.) With a widespread exceptionally weak snowpack, the storms created dangerous avalanche conditions, and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches on slopes steeper than 30°. The danger is LOW on low elevation and sunny slopes that had very shallow snow cover or were bare before last weekend's storm, but the snow is too shallow to ride safely.
-The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet in elevation reports 37° F and there is 33 inches of total snow.
-Winds on Logan Peak are blowing from the southwest 31 mph with gusts up to 38 mph, and it's 34° F this morning.
-It's 37° F at Card Canyon with 29 inches of total snow.
-On Paris Peak at 9500 feet, it is 31° F with southwest winds blowing 24 to 31 mph.
This is the NWS point forecast for Naomi Peak Area:
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. West southwest wind 11 to 16 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southwest wind 11 to 14 mph.
Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Southwest wind 16 to 18 mph.
The high-pressure system will remain over the zone into the weekend, with a chance for relief and some snow on Sunday night and Monday (perhaps 5 to 9 inches of accumulation). A stronger storm is queuing up for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
  • Several small natural and remotely triggered avalanches were reported last weekend.
  • There were some fairly large natural avalanches on Tuesday, including one on the east face of Naomi Pk and a couple on the Sisters in upper Cottonwood.
  • Sledders remotely triggered a small avalanche in the cliffs on the southwest corner of Tony Grove Lake. The 2'-deep and 40' wide avalanche probably occurred on Wednesday morning.
You can read all recent local observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human-triggered avalanches remain likely at upper elevations. Avalanches of stiff, previously drifted snow could be one to three feet deep, failing on a persistent weak layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow. The Central Bear River Range has picked up around 3.4 inches of SWE since Saturday. Avalanches failing on the widespread PWL are possible even in sheltered terrain on slopes steeper than about 30°.
  • Recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing (whumpfs) are sure signs of unstable snow. These are "Red Flags," and people should reevaluate their plans if they encounter them in the backcountry.
  • Avalanches today are likely to be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below.
  • A ride in even a small avalanche is especially dangerous in the early season due to shallowly buried rocks, stumps, and downed trees.
  • Very weak and sugary faceted snow exists on almost all northerly-facing slopes at upper and mid-elevations. Weak preexisting snow near the ground was also reported on all upper elevation aspects in the northern part of the zone. Low elevation and southerly slopes were mostly bare of snow or had only very shallow coverage before this weekend's storm.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Small, loose, wet avalanches are possible in sunny terrain as mountain temperatures soar today. Roller balls, pinwheels, and natural point-release avalanches indicate potential for wet avalanche activity, and if observed people should move to more shady terrain.
Additional Information
We triggered dozens of whumpfs following the summer trail towards Naomi Peak. Poor snow structure is now widespread in the Logan Zone, with a slab forming on very weak faceted snow. Here Paige explains why conditions are dangerous currently.
A natural avalanche on the east face of Naomi Peak, most likely occurred on Tuesday, 12-17-24.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Remember that the Tony Grove Road is not maintained for winter driving. Treacherous snow-covered and icy conditions will be encountered.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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