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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, December 19, 2024
There is CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger at upper elevations on drifted slopes facing northwest through southeast. People are likely to trigger dangerous slab avalanches of wind-drifted snow failing on a widespread sugary, persistent weak layer that is now buried 1 to 3 feet deep. Avalanches could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below!
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are required. Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes with weak, faceted snow.
Low
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Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
Announcement: Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Find participating shops and more info HERE.
Weather and Snow
Heavy snowfall and drifting snow from two storms between December 14 and 17 overloaded upper-elevation slopes plagued by weak, faceted snow. Upper elevation slopes in the Central Bear River Range picked up about two feet of heavy new snow, with the Tony Grove Snotel reporting around 3.4 inches of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent.) With an exceptionally weak snowpack, the heavy snow and consistently strong westerly winds created dangerous avalanche conditions, and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches in steep, wind-loaded terrain. Conditions are less dangerous, but it is too shallow to ride on low elevation and sunny slopes that had very shallow snow cover or were bare before last weekend's storm.
-The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet above sea level reports 29° F and there is 34 inches of total snow at the site
-Winds on Logan Peak are blowing from the west 21 mph with gusts up to 32 mph, and it's 26° F this morning.
-It's 24° F at Card Canyon with 30 inches of total snow.
-It was kind of windy on Paris Peak at 9500 feet where its 22° F with west winds blowing 22 to 26 mph, with gusts of 38 mph this morning.
This is the NWS point forecast for Naomi Peak Area:
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West northwest wind 8 to 13 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. West southwest wind 11 to 14 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. West-southwest wind around 14 mph.
The high pressure system will remain over the zone into the weekend, with a chance for relief and a little snow on Sunday night and Monday.
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
There were several natural and remotely triggered avalanches reported over the weekend. Yesterday, we couldn't see evidence of any fresh natural activity other than a few distant blown-in crowns on Naomi Pk and the Sisters in upper Cottonwood.
You can read all recent local observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With the recent sustained winds and heavy snow, human-triggered avalanches remain likely at upper elevations. Avalanches of stiff wind-drifted snow could be one to three feet deep, failing on a persistent weak layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow.
  • Recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing (whumpfs) are sure signs of unstable snow. These are "Red Flags," and people should reevaluate their plans if they encounter them in the backcountry.
  • Avalanches today are likely to be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below.
  • A ride in even a small avalanche is especially dangerous in the early season due to shallowly buried rocks, stumps, and downed trees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very weak and sugary faceted snow exists on almost all northerly-facing slopes at upper and mid-elevations. Weak preexisting snow near the ground was also reported on all upper elevation aspects in the northern part of the zone. Low elevation and southerly slopes were mostly bare of snow or had only very shallow coverage before this weekend's storm.
The Central Bear River Range has picked up around 3.4 inches of SWE since Saturday. Avalanches failing on the widespread PWL are possible even in sheltered terrain on slopes steeper than about 30°.
Additional Information
I dug a snowpit where I triggered a whumpf, and this is what I found. Poor snow structure is now widespread in the Logan Zone, with a slab forming on very weak faceted snow.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Remember that the Tony Grove Road is not maintained for winter driving. Treacherous snow-covered and icy conditions will be encountered.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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