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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 6, 2022
People should avoid travel in all avalanche terrain today. Stay off and well out from under slopes steeper than 30° and adjacent slopes at all elevations.
Rapid accumulation of a couple feet of very heavy snow, drifting snow from extremely strong west wind, and rain at lower elevations created very dangerous avalanche conditions and HIGH danger at all elevations in the backcountry. Soft slab avalanches of heavy storm snow are likely in steep drifted terrain, and loose wet avalanches entraining rain soaked storm snow could be a problem at lower elevations. Drifting overloaded slopes plagued by a deeply buried persistent weak layer, and dangerous avalanches breaking 4 to 6 feet deep on sugary faceted snow near the ground are likely on northerly facing upper and mid elevation slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
What
HEAVY DENSE SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-ON-SNOW AT LOW ELEVATIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS AND A HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER.

When
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST THURSDAY

Where
ALL THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER AND WASATCH RANGE, AND THE WESTERN UINTAS.

Impacts
NATURAL AND HUMAN-TRIGGERED AVALANCHES WILL BE LIKELY ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS.
Weather and Snow
The National Weather Service's Winter Storm Warning continues in the Logan Zone through this evening. Heavy snow is falling in the Bear River Range this morning, and about two feet of very heavy snow accumulated at upper elevations in then past couple days.. The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 27°F this morning and around 28 inches of new snow with 6.2" of SWE (snow water equivalent) from the storm so far. West winds are blowing more than 30 mph this morning at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, with gusts in the mid 50 mph range. It'll be another very stormy day in the mountains, with another 6 to 10 inches of heavy snow and continuing strong west winds forecast. Westerly winds will continue to be fairly strong, the rain-snow line will creep upward, and temperatures will rise to around freezing at upper elevations tomorrow morning. Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday, with periods of snow and a few inches of accumulation. Clearing and fair weather is expected Sunday, continuing well into next week.
We found pretty good coverage on lower elevation slopes in Logan Canyon, which means we'll now have to watch for avalanche problems at all elevations and on all slopes.
Recent Avalanches
With this much heavy snow and wind drifting, I'm confident that natural avalanches occurred overnight and are continuing today. We just can't see them yet due to the ongoing storm.
We saw some fresh cornice fall off the south ridge of Magog Monday, but no significant avalanches were yet reported in the Logan Zone in 2022. It has been very active in the Central and Southern Wasatch Range, with several recent huge avalanches from the backcountry on our updated Avalanche List..
A slab of wind drifted snow cracked broke yesterday at very low elevations in Cache Valley, a sure sign that avalanches are possible on steep drifted slopes even down in the low lands.
There were some natural avalanches that happened on Providence Peak last week during the Holiday storms like the one below.
Check HERE for all the latest observations and avalanche activity.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A bit over two feet of very heavy snow accumulated at upper elevations with 6.2" SWE recorded at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel in the past couple days, and heavy snow is still falling in the mountains this morning. Snow turned to rain again early this morning in Logan, and the rain/snow line will probably creep up in elevation as the storm progresses today. The heavy storm snow is inverted, or heavier on top, and when it is this way, it is prone to producing soft slab avalanches. As rain soaks the cold snow at lower elevations it will cause potential for loose wet avalanches entraining big piles of storm snow. Heavy snowfall is forecast to continue throughout the day, with natural avalanches of storm snow most likely during periods of intense snowfall and drifting.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People could trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow in steep terrain at all elevations today. West winds ramped up again this morning, gusting in the mid 50 mph range mph on Logan Peak, raking the fresh snow off windward slopes, and depositing it in stiff drifts on the lee side of major ridges and in and around terrain features. Also, the strong winds are drifting snow right onto suspect northerly facing slopes that are plagued by a persistent weak layer, increasing the load and the danger.
  • An avalanche of wind drifted snow overrunning a with a deeply buried persistent weak layer could step down, include older snow, and become much larger and more destructive.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and deposits of wind drifted snow in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, scoops, and cliff bands.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although they have become less likely and harder to trigger, very dangerous deep hard slab avalanches failing at ground level on weak faceted snow remain possible. The rapid load from today's new snow, and especially from continued significant drifting, could be enough increase in load to cause dangerous natural hard slab avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer on upper elevation northerly facing slopes. These slopes have a layer of weak, sugary facets near the ground that could fracture and produce slab avalanches 4-6 feet deep and hundreds of feet across. Avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or from flat terrain under steep slopes.
Additional Information
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
    Check slope angles and stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30° and adjacent slopes.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
  • Check out all the upcoming education classes and clinics HERE.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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