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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, January 5, 2022
Rapid accumulations of heavy snow, drifting snow from extremely strong west wind, and rain at lower elevations will cause the avalanche danger to rise to HIGH in the backcountry today. Dangerous avalanche conditions already exist this morning on drifted slopes at all elevations, and soft slab and loose avalanches of heavy storm snow are likely in steep terrain. Drifting overloaded slopes plagued by a deeply buried persistent weak layer, and dangerous avalanches breaking 4 to 6 feet deep on sugary faceted snow near the ground are likely on upper and mid elevation slopes facing northwest through east.
  • Avoid travel in all avalanche terrain today.
  • Stay off and well out from under slopes steeper than 30° and adjacent slopes at all elevations.
Low
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Avalanche Warning
What
HEAVY DENSE SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN-ON-SNOW AT LOW ELEVATIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS AND A HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER.

When
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST THURSDAY

Where
ALL THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER AND WASATCH RANGE, AND THE WESTERN UINTAS.

Impacts
NATURAL AND HUMAN-TRIGGERED AVALANCHES WILL BE LIKELY ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS.
Weather and Snow
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains in the Logan Zone through tomorrow evening. Heavy snow is falling in the Bear River Range this morning, and about a foot of heavy snow accumulated at upper elevations yesterday and overnight.. The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 25°F this morning and around 12 inches of new snow with 1.7" SWE in the last 24 hours. West winds are blowing more than 40 mph this morning at the CSI Logan Peak weather station, with gusts to 76 mph! It'll be a very stormy day in the mountains, with another 8 to 12 inches of heavy snow and continuing strong west winds forecast. Snow will continue through tonight and much of tomorrow. Westerly winds will continue to be fairly strong, the rain-snow line will creep upward, and temperatures will rise to around freezing at upper elevations tomorrow.
We found widespread very deep snow from the series of Holiday storms in the upper Bunch Grass Area Monday.
Recent Avalanches
We saw some fresh cornice fall off the south ridge of Magog Monday, but no significant avalanches were yet reported in the Logan Zone in 2022. It has been very active in the Central and Southern Wasatch Range, with several recent huge avalanches from the backcountry on our updated Avalanche List..
A slab of wind drifted snow cracked broke yesterday at very low elevations in Cache Valley, a sure sign that avalanches are possible on steep drifted slopes even down in the low lands.
There were some natural avalanches that happened on Providence Peak last week during the Holiday storms like the one below.
Check HERE for all the latest observations and avalanche activity.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
About a foot of heavy snow accumulated at upper elevations yesterday and overnight with 1.7" SWE recorded at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and heavy snow is still falling in the mountains this morning. Snow turned to rain early this morning in Logan, and the rain/snow line will probably creep up in elevation as the storm progresses. The heavy storm snow is probably inverted, or heavier on top, and when it comes in this way, it can be prone to producing soft slab avalanches. As rain soaks the cold snow at lower elevations it could cause potential for loose wet avalanches entraining the storm snow and snow from the Holiday storms. Heavy snowfall is forecast to continue throughout the day and the avalanche danger will continue to rise, with natural avalanches of storm snow most likely during periods of intense snowfall and drifting.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People could trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow in steep terrain at all elevations today. Extremely strong southwest winds Monday night drifted copious snow in exposed terrain, built deep drifts and wind slabs in and around terrain features. West winds ramped up again overnight, gusting to 76 mph on Logan Peak, raking the fresh snow off windward slopes, and depositing it in stiff drifts on the lee side of major ridges and in and around terrain features. Also, the strong winds are drifting snow right onto suspect northerly facing slopes that are plagued by a persistent weak layer, increasing the load and the danger.
  • An avalanche of wind drifted snow overrunning a with a deeply buried persistent weak layer could step down, include older snow, and become much larger and more destructive.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and deposits of wind drifted snow in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, scoops, and cliff bands.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although they have become less likely and harder to trigger, very dangerous deep hard slab avalanches failing at ground level on weak faceted snow remain possible. The rapid load from today's new snow, and especially from significant drifting, could be enough increase in load to cause dangerous natural hard slab avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer on upper elevation northerly facing slopes. These slopes have a layer of weak, sugary facets near the ground that could fracture and produce slab avalanches 4-6 feet deep and hundreds of feet across. Avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or from flat terrain under steep slopes.
Additional Information
  • Always follow safe backcountry travel protocols. Go one person at a time in avalanche terrain, while the rest of your party watches from a safe area.
  • Check your avalanche rescue equipment, change your batteries, and practice often with your backcountry partners.
    Check slope angles and stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30° and adjacent slopes.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
  • Check out all the upcoming education classes and clinics HERE.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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