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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, January 31, 2021
***BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE ACCIDENTS ARE LIKELY***
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep upper and mid elevation slopes in the Logan Zone. People are likely to trigger avalanches of fresh wind drifted snow, as well as more dangerous avalanches involving old snow and failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer. Natural avalanches are possible. Enticing deep powder conditions may lure you onto steeper slopes, but we recommend people resist that temptation. You can find safer conditions in sheltered and lower angled terrain, but avalanches remain possible at all elevations.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and make conservative decisions.
  • Stay off and out from under drifted slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
Low
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Considerable
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST AND CONDITIONS ARE PERFECT FOR AVALANCHE ACCIDENTS IN THE BACKCOUNTRY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND. AVALANCHES TRIGGERED BY PEOPLE COULD BE LARGE, VERY DANGEROUS, UNEXPECTED, AND PERHAPS DEADLY.
Weather and Snow
Nice weather and enticing fresh powder may lure unsuspecting people into dangerous backcountry avalanche terrain. About 10 inches of new snow fell yesterday at upper elevations and there is four feet of total snow now at the 8400' TGLU1 Snotel in the Central Bear River Range. The overall snowpack is generally still quite shallow across the Logan Zone. South winds are blowing around 15 mph this morning and it's 13°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes in the backcountry, especially on mid and upper elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. The powder is pretty deep up high so you may be temped onto steeper slopes, but we recommend people resist that temptation and continue stay off and out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
The sun will be out and it will be a lovely day in the mountains. Expect 8500' high temperatures around 30°F, a moderate south-southwest breeze, and wind chill values as low as -3°F. Tomorrow will be sunny, with mountain temperatures in the upper 20s. Expect fair and mild weather for the next few days, with the next chance for some snow coming Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Gobblers Knob, above SLC, is the site of an avalanche accident yesterday (1-30-2021), where two people were caught and carried by a large avalanche that failed on a buried persistent weak layer.
Recent Avalanches
The UAC is investigating two accidents that occurred yesterday in the Wasatch Range above Park City and Salt Lake.
  • Two skiers were caught and carried by a large avalanche on Gobblers Knob, and one was injurred. Preliminary Report
  • A skier was completely buried in an avalanche on Square Top in the backcountry above Park City. A partner was able to dig to the victum and attempted life saving efforts. Rescuers were unable to reach the scene due to dangerous avalanche conditions. Preliminary Report
Locally: Fiday, a snowboard rider triggered a 1.5' to 3' deep and 100' wide avalanche of wind drifted snow on a relatively low angled, 30°east facing slope at around 9000' in the northern Bear River Range. No one was caught but the avalanche overran a few sets of tracks from previous runs.
This hard slab avalanche of freshly drifted snow was triggered Friday (1-29-2021) on a fairly low angled slope as you can see in the picture.
There were numerous natural avalanches of wind drifted snow at upper elevations across the zone in the past week. Visit our avalanche list HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very weak sugary or faceted snow near the ground is widespread across the region, and people could trigger avalanches where a slab of more cohesive snow has formed on top of the weak snow. The load of yesterday's drifted new snow may be enough in some areas to overload deeper buried persistent weak layers that are widespread across the zone, and large and dangerous human triggered avalanches could result.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
These large faceted snow grains make up a nasty buried persistent weak layer that is widespread in the Logan Zone. It exists on slopes at all elevations across the zone. (Stump Hollow, 1-30-2021)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Westerly winds today will continue to drift fresh snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones, and build drifts and wind slabs on steep slopes at all elevations. Drifting has created thick cohesive slabs, and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow in the backcountry again today. Dangerous avalanche conditions will persist through the weekend.
  • Watch for and avoid drifted snow near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
I observed this fresh natural avalanche of wind drifted snow on the east face of Providence Peak on Thursday.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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