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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, January 21, 2020
Heightened avalanche conditions and MODERATE danger exist on upper and mid elevation elevation slopes. People could trigger dangerous avalanches of previously wind drifted snow failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer. Avalanches could be quite large, destructive, and potentially deadly. You can find much safer conditions and LOW danger at lower elevations, on lower angled slopes, and in sheltered terrain.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We are very sad to report an avalanche fatality that happened Saturday above Farmington Canyon. A 18 year old, male snowmobiler was caught, fully buried and killed. Preliminary info available HERE. We will have a full report available in the coming days. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
Weather and Snow
It's 32°F and there is 78 inches of total snow at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, containing 126% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. South winds have been fairly consistent overnight at the CSI Logan Peak weather station. They are currently blowing around 25 mph, with gusts in the 40s, and it's 25°F at 9700'.
The deep powder has settled out significantly, warm temperatures formed crusts at lower elevations and on sunny slopes, but you can still find pretty good, soft and fast conditions in sheltered terrain and on lower angled slopes. Lots of people got out into the backcountry this weekend and only a couple avalanches were reported. These were big and very dangerous avalanches though, and heightened avalanche conditions exist today on some previously drifted slopes.
Today will be mostly cloudy, with 8500' high temperatures around 27°F, and 9 to 15 mph southwest winds. There is a good chance of snow showers, but less than a half inch of accumulation is expected. It will snow tonight, with 4 to 8 inches possible at upper elevations. Temperatures will fall to near 18°F by 8pm, then rising to around 30°F during the remainder of the night. West wind will blow 13 to 17 mph. Snow showers will continue tomorrow morning, with 1 or 2 inches possible. Temperatures will be in the mid twenties and it will be windy, with 19 to 24 mph west-northwest wind. A series of weak weather systems will pass through the region. High pressure will return late in the week.
Recent Avalanches
Sunday, a solo skier triggered and was caught and carried by a huge avalanche in Miller Bowl near Tony Grove Lake. Luckily he was spit out at the bottom just as the very deep pile of debris came to a stop. The avalanche on a repeater path at about 8700' was a least 6 feet deep and about 500' wide. It failed on a deeply buried sugary persistent weak layer near the ground with a loud crack, and took the skier under the snow for a 500 vrt' spin-cycle ride. The skier lost both his skis and his ski poles, but he is happy to have walked out alive.
A large natural or perhaps remote triggered avalanche was observed in the Fairgrounds on the east side of Logan Peak Sunday, 1-19-2020. There were no visible tracks in the area when it was first spotted.
A large hard slab avalanche was observed Wednesday morning in the Rodeo Grounds on the east side of Logan Peak. It may have been remote triggered from the ridge as sled tracks were also observed. The large avalanche failed on sugary faceted snow near the ground.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on upper and mid elevation slopes. Strong south and west winds drifted tons of last week's nice powder into lee slope avalanche starting zones. Apparently, some avalanches can step down into buried persistent weak layers, involve large volumes of snow, and be quite dangerous and destructive. The cold weather Christmas week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, in others a layer of surface hoar feathers was buried by the New Years Storm. Slopes with previously shallow snow cover are plagued by buried weak and sugary faceted snow. The additional weight from tons of recent snow and significant drifting was enough to reactivate the deeply buried October persistent weak layer on some slopes. You can still find this weak basal layer lurking on upper elevation slopes facing northwest, north and east.
  • Some avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
  • Smaller avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could step down into old snow and initiate a much larger avalanche.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
  • Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Sugary, faceted snow from a buried weak layer on a west facing slope at about 7000' (1-19-2020)
General Announcements
New UAC Podcast - An Avalanche Forecaster, a Meteorologist, and an Economist Walk Into a Bar..... HERE
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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