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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, January 20, 2020
Areas with dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger exist on some drifted upper elevation slopes. People could trigger very dangerous avalanches of previously wind drifted snow failing a deeply buried persistent weak layer. Avalanches are likely to be quite large, destructive, and potentially deadly. Loose wet avalanches are possible on slopes with saturated surface snow. You can find much safer conditions at lower elevations, on lower angled slopes, and in sheltered terrain.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.
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Special Announcements
We are very sad to report an avalanche fatality that happened Saturday above Farmington Canyon. A 18 year old, male snowmobiler was caught, fully buried and killed. Preliminary info available HERE. We will have a full report available in the coming days. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
Weather and Snow
There is 82 inches of total snow at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, containing about 125% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. Southeast winds picked up significantly this morning at the CSI Logan Peak weather station. They are currently blowing around 30 mph, with gusts in the 40s, and it's 28°F at 9700'.
The deep powder has settled out significantly, but you can still find good, fast conditions in sheltered terrain and on lower angled slopes. Lots of people got out into the backcountry this weekend and only a couple avalanches were reported. These were big and very dangerous avalanches though, and dangerous avalanche conditions still exist today on some previously drifted upper slopes.
Today will be mostly cloudy, with 8500' high temperatures around 30°F, 11 to 13 mph south winds, and wind chills around -3°F. There is a chance of snow showers tonight, but less than a half inch is expected, with low temperatures rising to around 28°F by morning, and 8 to 16 mph south winds. Expect cloudy weather tomorrow, with a chance of snow showers, high near 28°F, and 10 to 13 mph west-southwest wind. A series of weak weather systems will pass through the region through midweek. High pressure will return late in the week.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, a solo skier triggered and was caught and carried by a huge avalanche in Miller Bowl near Tony Grove Lake. Luckily he was spit out at the bottom just a the very deep pile of debris came to a stop. The avalanche on a repeater path at about 8700' was a least 6 feet deep and about 500' wide. It failed on a deeply buried sugary persistent weak layer near the ground with a loud crack, and took the skier under the snow for a 500 vrt' spin cycle ride.
A large natural or perhaps remote triggered avalanche was observed in the Fairgrounds on the east side of Logan Peak yesterday. There were no visible tracks in the area when it was first spotted.
A large hard slab avalanche was observed Wednesday morning in the Rodeo Grounds on the east side of Logan Peak. It may have been remote triggered from the ridge as sled tracks were also observed. The large avalanche failed on sugary faceted snow near the ground.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong south and west winds drifted tons of last week's nice powder into lee slope avalanche starting zones. Today, people could trigger avalanches of previously or recently wind drifted snow on upper elevation slopes. Apparently, some avalanches could step down into buried persistent weak layers, involve large volumes of snow, and be quite dangerous and destructive.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
  • Avoid ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Saturday afternoon, west winds were still drifting lots of snow in exposed upper elevation terrain in the Wellsville Range
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes. The cold weather Christmas week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, in others a layer of surface hoar feathers was buried by the New Years Storm. Slopes with previously shallow snow cover are plagued by buried weak and sugary faceted snow. The additional weight from tons of recent snow and significant drifting was enough to activate the deeply buried persistent weak layer on some slopes.
  • Some avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
  • Smaller avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could step down into old snow and initiate a much larger avalanche.
Sugary, faceted snow from a buried weak layer on a west facing slope at about 7000' (1-19-2020)
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If the sun beats the clouds out this morning or if greenhousing occurs in sheltered terrain, loose wet avalanches are possible on steep slopes with saturated surface snow. A wet sluff overrunning a slope with a buried persistent weak layer might trigger a much larger and more dangerous avalanche.
General Announcements
New UAC Podcast - An Avalanche Forecaster, a Meteorologist, and an Economist Walk Into a Bar..... HERE
The anual CROWBAR backcountry ski race will be on Saturday, February 8. The unique and classic backcountry race will be held at the Swan Flat/Garden City Trailhead in upper Logan Canyon. There are four divisions (Junior, Recreation, Heavy Metal & Race) with different climbs, descents, and technical booters. Participants must carry avalanche rescue gear (beacon, shovel, probe) and can use alpine touring gear, telemark skis, or splitboards. Register on UltraSignup, or sign up to volunteer at this year's race!
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds from these go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education! Get your tickets HERE.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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