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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Tuesday morning, January 10, 2023
Today heavy snow, rain at lower elevations, and drifting from sustained southerly winds will cause rising avalanche danger in the backcountry. There is CONSIDERABLE danger at all elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and people are likely to trigger both small and large avalanches.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel.
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Weather and Snow
Rain and heavy wet snow are creating dangerous wet avalanche conditions at lower elevations, with natural avalanches occurring already. Avalanches of wind drifted snow are likely at upper and mid elevations, and the storm is elevating the danger of soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow as well as overloading slopes with a buried persistent weak layer near the ground.
The National Weather Service has continued a Winter Storm Advisory through Wednesday. The storm is warm, and the rain/snow line will ebb and flow around 6,000' in elevation.
Heavy snow is falling this morning across the Logan Zone. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 6" of heavy new snow with 9/10ths of an inch of SWE. It's 30° F and there is 75 inches of total snow. This morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, winds are blowing 20-30 mph from the south with a temperature of 24° F.
Today, we can expect snow up high and rain lower, with high temperatures at 8500' around 33° F and 15 to 25 mph winds blowing from the southwest. 3 to 7 inches of accumulation is possible by evening. The second wave of the storm moves in late this evening and will last into Wednesday, where we could see continuing wind from the south and an additional 8-14 inches of new snow by Thursday morning. A drying trend will follow on Thursday/Friday, with another storm on tap for the weekend.
Recent Avalanches
  • A rider found dangerous wet avalanche conditions at low elevations yesterday afternoon near the Logan River, triggering a few loose wet avalanches and observing a good amount of natural activity.
  • Sunday a party of skiers had a close call in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness in South Bowl. As the skiers descended, they triggered a very large slab avalanche 6 feet deep and 200 feet wide, running 1,750 vertical feet downhill.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
In many places, people could trigger large and dangerous avalanches failing on a deeply buried, sugary persistent weak layer. Such an avalanche could be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. The persistent weak layer from November is now buried 2-5 feet deep, and any avalanche that fails on it will likely be hundreds of feet wide.
Stability has significantly improved in upper-elevation terrain in areas with a deep snowpack (greater than 5 feet deep). However, poor snow structure still exists in many places where a person could trigger the slope from an area where the slab is shallower, and a dangerous deep hard slab avalanche could result. Be very careful around slope margins, in steep rocky terrain, and in outlying mid and upper elevation areas. In the Logan Zone, terrain with generally shallower snow like the Wellsville Range and the Logan Peak Area is most suspect. For now though, it's a good plan to continue avoiding steep avalanche-prone terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds in the past couple days transported plenty of snow. The wind picked up snow in fetch areas on windward slopes and in low angled terrain and deposited it on lee slopes and in terrain influenced deposition areas. The drifting built fresh slabs of thicker snow and added more weight to slopes with poor snow structure.
  • A smaller wind slab avalanche overrunning a slope with a poor snow structure could cause a much larger avalanche to step down to our now deeply buried November persistent weak layer.
  • As always, look for and avoid drifts on the lee side of prominent ridges, on corniced slopes, and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, mid-slope break overs, gully walls, sub ridges, saddles, and sinks.
  • Human-triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are possible in drifted areas.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Rain and heavy wet snow are creating dangerous loose wet avalanche conditions at lower elevations, with natural avalanches occurring in steep terrain. People should avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated snow. This would include a few select fishing holes on the Logan River and some places that you might walk the dog or take the kids sledding.
At upper and mid elevations, heavy snow and drifting from south winds are elevating the danger of soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow. People could trigger shallow soft slab avalanches even in sheltered terrain and loose avalanches could entrain significant piles of moist snow. Be aware of potential terrain traps like trees or cliff bands below that a small avalanche could sweep you into.
General Announcements
  • Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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