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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 20, 2021
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, wind-drifted slopes at mid and upper elevations on slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. Avoid steep slopes where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow. In these same areas, last weekend's snow may have added enough of a load for avalanches to fail down to a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
As things heat up today anticipate a MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
It's warm and blustery this morning and it did not freeze last night. As advertised, a deep Pacific trough is moving across the Great Basin spreading clouds into our region. Precipitation will be limited to northern Utah and north-central Colorado as the storm tracks to the southeast. But as I said yesterday, at least we'll get wind. Today expect cloudy skies this morning becoming mostly sunny by afternoon. Southwest winds will be strong with gusts up to 50 mph along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the low 40's. We'll see a slight chance for a trace to an inch of snow tonight and tomorrow. Skies should become partly sunny later in the day tomorrow with mostly sunny skies on Monday. The next system to affect the area comes on Tuesday.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
Clouds, strong winds, and a lack of an overnight re-freeze would cause me to think about doing something other than skiing or riding today. Overall conditions are variable and crusty with dry, soft snow only available on sheltered northerly aspects. Time and warm temperatures have helped the snowpack adjust to the snow load we received last weekend but it's still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. This weak layer exists on slopes that face NW-N-E-SE, and thin snowpack areas consisting of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points. Though the snow surface is mostly crusted over, strong southerly winds may be able to etch out some snow for transport and you'll need to be alert to developing fresh wind slabs today. And finally, with the lack of a freeze, expect the potential for loose wet avalanches when temps warm and the sun comes out later today.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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