Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, March 12, 2021
Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger exist on steep, wind drifted, northwest through east-facing slopes above treeline. As winds increase today, we could see some natural soft slab releases or fast running, loose snow sluffs off of some of the larger and steeper terrain so give it a wide berth. There also remains a MODERATE danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow on slopes near and above treeline that face northwest through southeast. Likely trigger points include thin snowpack areas along slope margins or around rock outcroppings. Wind drifted snow will add additional stress to these areas. Most south, west, and low elevation terrain offers generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Well-positioned bands of moisture yesterday brought 6"-8" of low-density snow to the mountains. Moderate southerly winds blew all day, increasing overnight into the 20-25 mph range with gusts into the 40's. Today look for cloudy skies and redeveloping snow showers midday as more moisture ahead of the closed Pacific low streams into the area. 1"-3" are possible. Southerly winds will increase today blowing in the 25-35 mph range with gusts as high as 50 along ridge tops. Light snow should continue overnight. The low will make its way through the 4 Corners region sometime on Saturday though timing and duration, along with snow amounts are still somewhat in question. It's now looking like only a few inches on Saturday with the best chance for snow coming Saturday night into Sunday. All said and done, it's still looking like another 6"-12" between now and Sunday.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
In our travels up above North Creek Pass yesterday, we found that the fresh snow had improved conditions though crusts and old tracks could still be felt underneath, particularly on sunnier aspects. The new, low-density snow will be easily transported today by the wind and fresh, unstable drifts will be found on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. As winds increase today, we could see some natural soft slab releases or fast running, loose snow sluffs off of some of the larger and steeper terrain. Today is a good day to stay out from underneath long-running slide paths. If you are headed up North Creek, travel under paths that threaten the road one at a time, and don't dawdle. Persistent weak layers of faceted snow still exist in the lower portion of the snowpack, and stability tests indicate that it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer. Steep, northerly-facing terrain remains the most likely area to trigger this kind of avalanche.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.