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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Monday morning, February 28, 2022
Warm sunny weather doesn't change the situation. Last week's new snow is resting on a widespread weak layer of facets, and it continues to give obvious signs of instability. For these reasons, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on northerly and east facing slopes where you are most likely to find this layer which is creating dangerous avalanche conditions.
Human triggered avalanches are possible on all other slopes and the danger is MODERATE.
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Weather and Snow
There are a few clouds overhead this morning that will clear out today and temperatures are in the mid 20s F. Yesterday winds blew all around the compass mostly 5-15 mph (N->NE->S->W) and are back to blowing from the NW. Following bitter cold temperatures last week, there has been a steady warming trend that will continue through Thursday of this week when some of the warmest air will be over the area. Today will have clear sunny skies and temperatures at 10,000 ft getting into the mid 30s F although it will likely feel warmer than that. Looking ahead, Friday will have a noticeable drop in temperatures with some clouds and the arrival of maybe a dusting of snow. More snow may fall over next weekend, but that's too far out to know for sure what will happen.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
On Thursday Eric found excellent powder snow and sensitive, dangerous avalanche conditions. Heading up North Creek, he was able to remotely trigger this avalanche (video below) as he passed underneath the slope. This is an obvious red flag sign of instability and areas that have deeper snow, will produce deeper and more dangerous avalanches. Another observer was in North Creek on Saturday and experienced widespread collapsing and cracking on any slope facing NW, N, & NE. Read their excellent observation HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow under the new snow from this week's snowfall (example photo below, the facets are the sugary looking snow under the new snow) can fracture and produce soft slab avalanches today. This layer exists mostly on northerly facing slopes but can be found on east facing slopes as well. Another observer in the Abajos yesterday got widespread collapsing on this layer on northerly facing slopes around 9000 feet on EVERY spot with a any amount of drifting. The snowpack is talking to us and saying its unstable. We should listen.
I wouldn't trust the snowpack and would be very conservative in my decision making on what slopes to cross and which ones to ride.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Sluffs and point releases of new snow may become possible today on slopes receiving direct sunshine. Many of these slope were nearly bare ground prior to last week's snowfall, but I would pay attention to how quickly the snow warms and become wet on south aspects today. The wetter it gets, the more likely wet loose avalanches will become.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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