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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Sunday morning, February 27, 2022
A widespread weak layer under the new snow on slopes facing north and east will make dangerous avalanche conditions today and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE. All the new snow on other aspects makes avalanches possible and the danger is MODERATE but it is stabilizing quickly.
Low
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Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Clear skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop into the teens F which is quite a bit warmer than yesterday morning. Winds from the north should ease today, and they may blow from the south later today but will remain light. Stong sunshine will allow temperatures to quickly warm and will be near 30 degrees F today. This week will have very warm weather followed by an "active" weather pattern by the end of the week, but it doesn't look very promising for snowfall just yet.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
On Thursday Eric found excellent powder snow and sensitive, dangerous avalanche conditions. Heading up North Creek, he was able to remotely trigger this avalanche (video below) as he passed underneath the slope. This is an obvious red flag sign of instability and areas that have deeper snow, will produce deeper and more dangerous avalanches. Another observer was in North Creek yesterday and experienced widespread collapsing and cracking on any slope facing NW, N, & NE. Read their excellent observation HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow under the new snow from this week's snowfall (example photo below, the facets are the sugary looking snow under the new snow) can fracture and produce soft slab avalanches today. This layer exists mostly on northerly facing slopes but can be found on east facing slopes as well.
How long will this layer remain unstable? The only clear answer I have is that it takes time to heal, and I wouldn't trust it today. The simple presence of this layer is all I need to know in order to avoid avalanche terrain today.

General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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