Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, February 28, 2019
A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow, and deeper avalanches breaking down to buried persistent weak layers. You are most likely to encounter these problems on steep slopes that face the north half of the compass. Avoid steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance indicating wind drifted snow. Also avoid very steep, rocky, or sparsely treed northerly facing terrain where buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow still exist.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are cloudy, southwesterly ridge top winds continue to blow in the 20 mph range with gusting to 30, and 10,000' temps are in the mid 20's. An active weather pattern is shaping up for the West but it appears as if most of the action is going to stay to the north. We'll see mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers over the course of the next few days but with only an inch or two of accumulation. SW winds will continue to blow in the moderate to strong range. Our best chance for snow will come on Saturday night.
I was out and about with Dustin Randall of ROAM Industry on Wednesday. It was a beautiful spring-like day in the mountains with associated spring-like conditions. Last week's incredible 50" of snow has settled out considerably but trail breaking is still difficult through up to 2' of snow. The snow got very moist yesterday and S facing slopes are crusted over. Wind exposed slopes have sustained some damage, both from SW and NW winds, but soft snow can still be found in protected areas. Stability tests show that the snowpack has largely adjusted to the snow load. Remaining areas of concern include wind drifted slopes, and steep, shady, northerly aspects where buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow still exist.
Wind drifts have formed on the leeward sides of terrain features, in between wind scoured zones. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance to them.
Snotel totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snotel totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Additional Information
Carry appropriate rescue gear: beacon, probe, shovel, and choose where you ride based on the avalanche forecast for the day!
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.