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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, February 17, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes on all aspects at upper elevations, and on slopes facing W-NE-SE at mid-elevations. Blowing and drifting snow has added additional stress to buried persistent weak layers and deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches up to 4' deep remain likely. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on mid and lower elevations slopes facing S-W and human-triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas.
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
3"-5" of low-density snow has fallen since Monday. NW winds were calm most of the day yesterday but unfortunately, they really ramped up last night blowing in the 25-30 mph range with gusts into the 40's. They've backed off somewhat this morning. Today will be sunny and cold with high temps in the mid-teens and chilly north winds blowing in the 10-20 mph range. Unsettled northwest flow will spread a few clouds over the area tonight and tomorrow as a short wave trough brushes by, followed by another on Saturday. This should mainly affect points north. The long-range models aren't currently showing much in store.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
12"-16" of snow has fallen since Saturday. This recent snow combined with wind has dangerously stressed buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow to their breaking point. Reports from Monday were of widespread collapsing and whumphing, sure red flag signs of instability. Deep and dangerous, human-triggered avalanches remain likely today, especially on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass. In these areas, avalanches may be triggered remotely and could break farther and wider than anticipated. Avoid locally connected lower angle slopes and run-out zones.
Recent Avalanches
Brian Murdock reported this avalanche on Horse Head Mountain on Monday. It likely ran naturally sometime during the storm last weekend.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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