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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 15, 2021
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST! New and wind drifted snow has stressed buried persistent weak layers to their breaking point and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near treeline and above on all aspects. On slopes that face NW-NE-SE deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches up to 4' deep remain very likely. Avalanches may break farther and wider than expected and signs of instability may not always be present. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know how to avoid avalanche terrain including locally connected, lower angle slopes and runout zones.
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Special Announcements
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The accident report for the tragic avalanche that killed four skiers in Millcreek Canyon on Saturday, Feb 6, is complete. All were well-known members of the backcountry community and all of us at the UAC are deeply affected. Our deep and sincere condolences go out to the family and friends so affected by this accident.
Weather and Snow
10"-14" of snow fell across the Abajo Mountains on Friday. Moderate to strong SW winds blew and drifted snow throughout the duration of the storm. Yesterday was mostly sunny with moderate NW winds blowing mostly at upper elevations. They've bumped up a bit overnight and temps have plummeted into the single digits. Today look for increasing clouds, and light to moderate WSW winds as the next storm system moves into the region. Points north will be favored but we should see a few inches with snowfall beginning sometime this evening.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
New and wind drifted snow has dangerously stressed pre-existing slabs overriding buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow to their breaking point. Deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain likely today, especially on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass. In these areas, avalanches may be triggered remotely and could break farther and wider than anticipated. Avoid locally connected lower angle slopes and run out zones. Additionally, avalanches involving the new snow are likely on steep slopes of all aspects. Avalanche terrain should be avoided today.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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