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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 17, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes, and human triggered avalanches are likely. On slopes that face W-N-SE, the new snow load has also increased the danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried, persistent weak layer. Most low elevation, and south facing terrain has a MODERATE danger. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills, and know how to avoid steep, wind drifted terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Avalanche Watch
Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly clear this morning, and temps have plummeted into the single digits, but the big story is the lack of wind! They have been light and westerly all night on Abajo Peak. Today, southerly winds will continue to be mostly light, and daytime highs will be in the mid teens. The approaching system looks like it will provide snowy conditions from tonight through Tuesday with 8"-12" of accumulation. Unsettled weather continues through the week with possibly another storm on Friday.
I was down in the Abajo Mountains on Friday, with Dustin Randall from ROAM Industry and we found up to a foot of dense, somewhat inverted powder skiing in and around the old Blue Mountain ski area. In spite of the low elevation, we found areas with wind slab in exposed locations. Moderate to strong winds up high were moving snow around and the snow surface was definitely being wind affected.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are likely today on all aspects at upper elevations. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow has added stress to buried, persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Our primary concern is layer of weak, sugary snow at the base of the snowpack, and human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are possible today. The danger is greatest on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-E, but in some areas the problem wraps around to W and SE facing slopes.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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