Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 15, 2019
Heavy snowfall accompanied by strong winds have created dangerous conditions. The avalanche danger is HIGH on steep upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E, and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are certain are certain in these areas. On most other mid and upper elevation terrain the danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely. The new snow load has also increased the danger for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried, persistent weak layer. This problem is greatest on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. Most low elevation terrain has a MODERATE danger. Backcountry travelers today need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. Stay off of, and out from under steep, avalanche prone terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Watch
Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Camp Jackson is reporting 12" of snow with 8" at Buckboard Flat. This could translate to up to 16" up high. SW winds overnight have averaged 15-20 mph with gusts into the 30's. Today we'll see similar winds with a chance of snow possible. Another, colder system moves through tonight with another 4"-8" possible by Saturday.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dense, wet, and wind driven snow has formed an inverted, cohesive slab within the new snow on all aspects. The peak of instability within the new occurred overnight, but it's going to need another day or two to fully settle out. Avalanches within the new snow will be likely today on all aspects on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind drifted snow has added stress to buried, persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Our primary concern is layer of weak, sugary snow at the base of the snowpack, and human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are possible today. The danger is greatest on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-E, but in some areas the problem wraps around to W and SE facing slopes.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.