Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, December 5, 2019
I don't expect the recent new snow to have much of an effect on the avalanche danger. Today there remains an isolated or MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches on a buried persistent weak layer on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. There also remains an isolated possibility of triggering an old, hard wind slab on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Most other terrain offers LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7 We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
The annual free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk will be held at the Grand County Library on Thursday, Dec 5 at 6:00 p.m. Hope to see you there!
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Weather and Snow
Though not forecasted to be a big event, the current storm has proven to be quite underwhelming. Camp Jackson and Buckboard are reporting 3"-4" of new snow overnight. We may squeak a couple more inches out this morning before the trough axis exits the region sometime before noon. Ridgetop SSE winds last night blew in the 20-25 mph range with gusts into the 40's before backing off and swinging to the SW around 3:00 a.m. They are currently averaging 15-20 mph gusting to 30's and it's 24 degrees at 10,000'.
Today look for mostly cloudy skies, lingering snow showers, and decreasing SW winds shifting to NW. High temps will be in the high 20's. Friday and Saturday look to be dry and mostly sunny with our next chance for snow on Sunday.
It was a wild Thanksgiving week in the Abajos with lots of snow and wind. A storm on Tuesday and a two-part storm over Thanksgiving brought 3'-4' to the mountains and coverage is the best I have seen for this time of year. Strong winds from all directions have taken a bit of a toll leaving some exposed slopes blasted down to the grass while leaving others remarkably intact. Soft, settled powder can still be found however in many locations.
Snowpack Discussion
In our travels Sunday we saw evidence of cracking and slab failure that had occurred during the storm but we saw no actual avalanches, and instabilities within the storm snow had settled out. We noted the presence of wind drifts on steep slopes that should still be avoided, but overall we found a mostly strong snowpack devoid of reactive weak layers. At 10.000' we measured 62" of snow. Travis Nauman, on the other hand, sent in this observation where he noted the presence of reactive weak layers on NE aspect around 9000' which is certainly a cause for concern. We currently have very limited data and until we gather more, a slope by slope analysis will need to conducted before venturing on to steep, northerly facing terrain.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.