Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, December 30, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. With strong winds and snow in the forecast the danger could reach HIGH by tomorrow.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing the south side of the compass where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
A powerful storm system is headed our way though the Abajos don't look like they are going to get quite as much out of it as surrounding mountain ranges. Southwesterly winds are on the increase this morning ahead of a deep trough dropping southward across the Great Basin. Today look for cloudy skies, blustery SW winds blowing in the 25-35 mph range with developing snow showers by this afternoon with 1"-2" possible. With the arrival of the cold front late tonight, we should start to see heavier snowfall with 3"-5" likely by Friday morning. Snowfall should continue through the day with another 4"-8" possible.
Snowpack
Snow totals are up to between 12" and 15" since last Friday night with locally higher amounts at upper elevations. Coverage prior to this storm was quite thin with most sun and wind exposed slopes still showing lots of grass and occasional patches of bare ground. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack and this is where the trouble is. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E are likely. On slopes facing W and SE you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow creating an unstable situation, and human triggered avalacnhes up to 2' deep are likely on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.
Photo illustrates a cohesive slab from the Dec 10 storm sitting on top of loose, weak, sugary faceted snow from October.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >