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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 26, 2021
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing W and SE where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Most S-SW facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
The story today is the wind. A fast moving short wave trough will sweep through the area today bringing strong southwesterly winds and perhaps a few inches of snow. Pre Laurel Peak wind station is still rimed up but stations throughout the region are reporting strong southerly winds averaging 25-35 mph with regular gusts into the 50's and 60's with Gold Hill in Telluride registering gusts to 80 mph. High temps today will be in the low 20's. A deep trough will remain entrenched over the west with successive waves moving through between now and Thursday. None of the action to date has brought us much in the way of significant snowfall and the next two waves seem to be repeat performances, but a system later in the week holds promise.
Snowpack
The mountains picked up 7" of dense, heavy snow at around 9000' on Saturday,which could translate to up to a foot of new snow at upper elevations. Coverage prior to this storm was quite thin with most sun and wind exposed slopes still showing lots of grass and occasional patches of bare ground. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack and this is where the trouble is. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E are likely. On slopes facing W and SE you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow creating an unstable situation, and human triggered avalacnhes up to 2' deep are likely on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.
Photo illustrates a cohesive slab from the Dec 10 storm sitting on top of loose, weak, sugary faceted snow from October.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Potentially unstable, recent deposits of wind drifted may be found on upper elevation slopes facing W through N through SE. Wind drifts from on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain feaures such as sub ridges, gully walls, or rock outcroppings. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to pre-exisiting slabs with weak, sugary snow underneath. In these areas, human triggered avalanches failing on this weak sugary, are likely. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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