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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, December 25, 2021
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing W and SE where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Most S-SW facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
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High
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Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
The mountains picked up 7" of dense, heavy snow at around 9000' which could translate to up to a foot of new snow at upper elevations. Strong southwesterly winds have accompanied the duration of the storm. Today look for partly cloudy skies with a lingering chance for light scattered showers in the morning, breezy SW winds, and high temps in the low 20's. Snow showers should again develop Saturday night into Sunday with 4"-8" possible by Sunday night. For the long term, a broad trough will dominate the western U.S. over the upcoming week with our next best chance for snow on Tuesday.
Snowpack
Coverage prior to this storm was quite thin with most sun and wind exposed slopes still showing lots of grass and occassional patches of bare ground. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack and this is where the trouble is. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E are likely. On slopes facing W and SE you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow creating an unstable situation, and human triggered avalacnhes up to 2' deep are likely on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.
Photo illustrates a cohesive slab from the Dec 10 storm sitting on top of loose, weak, sugary faceted snow from October.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Potentially unstable, recent deposits of wind drifted may be found on upper elevation slopes facing W through N through SE. Wind drifts from on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain feaures such as sub ridges, gully walls, or rock outcroppings. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to pre-exisiting slabs with weak, sugary snow underneath. In these areas, human triggered avalanches failing on this weak sugary, are likely. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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