Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 22, 2019
Most terrain in the Abajo Mountains has LOW danger. But blowing and drifting snow over the past week have created an isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger in steep upper elevation terrain. Look for recently formed drifts, and older, harder wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges or gully walls. Signs of instability include cracking in the snow surface. It may also be possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Overcast skies this morning should turn to partly sunny skies as the day progresses. Southerly winds will average 10-20 mph, and high temps at 10,000' will be near freezing. The storm is still on track to bring us a white Christmas but details are still a bit fuzzy. We should see snow start to fall late in the afternoon on Christmas Eve with the greatest intensity coming around midnight. It's not looking to be a huge dump but optimistic projections are in the 6"-10" range.
The story has been the wind and it's been blowing, drifting, and alternately scouring surfaces all week. It's been almost 2 weeks since our last significant snow and the surface is getting tired and worn. Areas with soft settled powder can still be found in sheltered areas, but the snowpack is deteriorating.
Dustin Randall from ROAM Industry was up Thursday and reported finding wind slabs that were sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Unstable areas of wind drifted snow are our primary avalanche concern at this time.
Webcam image courtesy of Kevin Dressel.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
Recent Avalanches
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds over the past week have blown around what little snow was available for transport and isolated drifts have formed on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Fresh drifts are mostly shallow and shouldn't pose too much of a hazard, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking in the snow is a sign of instability. The best practice is to avoid steep slopes with wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Generally speaking, the mountains have a deep, strong snowpack for this time of year without the typical layer of weak, sugary "faceted" snow at the base. In my travels on Friday, 13 however, I observed two weak layers that have formed in the upper 12"-18" of the snowpack. Though not overly reactive at this time, there is a possibility for triggering an avalanche on one of these buried weak layers on steep slopes facing NW-N-E, especially in areas that have overlying deposits of wind drifted snow. We will want to pay attention to these weak layers as new or wind drifted snow will add additional stress, increasing the likelihood of triggering an avalanche.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.