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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 20, 2021
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain where early December snow has formed a cohesive slab on top of weak, sugary, faceted snow from October. This persistent weak layer problem is not yet very widespread, and these areas are difficult to access but it 's something worth paying attention to, especially when we get more snow. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
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Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Under a ridge of high pressure, we'll again see sunny skies, light southwesterly winds, and high temps in the mid to upper 20's. Dry conditions continue through Wednesday. Models are coming into better agreement for an atmospheric river event to affect the region starting on Thursday, and it's looking like we just may see a white Christmas!.
I got up to North Creek Pass on Friday and conditions are generally too thin for travel off the road. Snow depths range from about about a foot near the bottom of North Creek to around 18" near the top with up to 2' in drifted areas. Sun and wind exposed slopes are barely covered and are still showing a lot of grass.
It's still pretty thin up there!
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October snow. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow can form a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. For now, this problem isn't particularly widespread, and places where it does exist - upper elevation, northerly facing slopes - are difficult to access because of low snow cover. But as more snow begins to increase the load on this buried, weak and sugary, facted layer, we'll need to start paying attention.
Photo illustrates a cohesive slab from the Dec 10 storm sitting on top of loose, weak, sugary faceted snow from October.
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Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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