Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 19, 2021
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain where early December snow has formed a cohesive slab on top of weak, sugary, faceted snow from October. This persistent weak layer problem is not yet very widespread, and these areas are difficult to access but it 's something worth paying attention to, especially when we get more snow. A MODERATE danger for avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow also exists on steep, upper elevation slopes facing W through N through SE. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
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Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Light NW winds yesterday shifted to SW around 3:00 a.m. this morning, and mountains temps are about 10 degrees warmer than they were yesterday at this time. Today look for sunny skies, light SW winds and high temps in the mid 20's. Monday will see more of the same. A complicated weather pattern continues to evolve for later in the week with a variety of potential outcomes. For now, the best chance for snow looks like Thu-Fri.
I got up to North Creek Pass on Friday and conditions are generally too thin for travel off the road. Snow depths range from about about a foot near the bottom of North Creek to around 18" near the top with up to 2' in drifted areas. Sun and wind exposed slopes are barely covered and are still showing a lot of grass.
It's still pretty thin up there!
Recent Avalanches
I received a report of an avalanche on an upper elevation, SE facing slope near Abajo Peak this week. No other details are known.
This harrowing avalanche accident that resulted in a complete burial was caught on video in the Wasatch Mountains yesterday. Fortunately, the victim was rescued without major injury. Much thanks to the involved party for sharing this information.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October snow. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow can form a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. For now, this problem isn't particularly widespread, and places where it does exist - upper elevation, northerly facing slopes - are difficult to access because of low snow cover. But as more snow begins to increase the load on this buried, weak and sugary, facted layer, we'll need to start paying attention.
Photo illustrates a cohesive slab from the Dec 10 storm sitting on top of loose, weak, sugary faceted snow from October.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Potentially unstable, recent deposits of wind drifted may be found on upper elevation slopes facing W through N through SE. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added additonal stress to weak, sugary snow underneath. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.