Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 15, 2019
Blowing and drifting snow have created an isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger on steep upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-SE. Look for fresh drifts on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub-ridges or gully walls. Signs of instability include cracking in the snow surface. It may also be possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on steep, upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Most other terrain offers LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday's storm event underwhelmed even my pessimistic forecast with a grand total of 1" of snow falling over the past 24 hours. Westerly winds throughout the event averaged 15 mph with gusts into the high 20's. They dropped off and shifted to more northerly yesterday afternoon, and are currently light. It's currently 9 degrees at 10,000'. Today look for mostly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and high temps around 20 degrees. Conditions look dry for the upcoming week.
Snow depths range from 30" at Camp Jackson and Buckboard Flat (9000') to more than 4' of snow at North creek Pass (10,500'). Some sun and wind-exposed slopes have considerably less and there is still some grass poking out, but all said we're off to a good start down here.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds over the past few days have blown around what little snow was available for transport and isolated drifts have formed on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Fresh drifts are mostly shallow and shouldn't pose too much of a hazard, but they could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking in the snow is a sign of instability. The best practice is to avoid steep slopes with wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Generally speaking, the mountains have a deep, strong snowpack for this time of year without the typical layer of weak, sugary "faceted" snow at the base. In my travels on Friday, 13 however, I observed two weak layers that have formed in the upper 12"-18" of the snowpack. Though not overly reactive at this time, there is a possibility for triggering an avalanche on one of these buried weak layers on steep slopes facing NW-N-E, especially in areas that have overlying deposits of wind drifted snow. We will want to pay attention to these weak layers as new or wind drifted snow will add additional stress, increasing the likelihood of triggering an avalanche.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.