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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 13, 2019
Look for a rise in avalanche danger over the weekend from blowing and drifting and snow. The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning and mostly stable snow conditions exist. Watch for an increase in danger as a long-duration storm system spreads into our area later today. New snow amounts and wind will dictate the rise in danger, and we could start to see sensitive wind drifts and a MODERATE avalanche danger developing by tomorrow. Look for fresh drifts to form on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Be alert to signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. It may also be possible to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on steep, rocky, northerly facing terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
A few clouds have gathered over the mountains and NW winds are on the increase averaging 20-25 mph along ridge tops. Mountain temps are in the high teens to low 20's. A long-duration storm event has begun to affect the region with most of the energy currently focused on the northern and central mountains. It looks like we will largely be left out of the party but we should see some accumulating snow Sat night into Sun with 3"-5" likely. Today look for increasing clouds and NW winds with a chance of snow later in the day. High temps will be in the upper 20's. Winds will shift to the SW tonight and snow showers are likely with 1"-3" possible. Snow showers and blustery westerly winds are on tap for Saturday with another 1"-3" possible during the day.
Snow depths range from 30" at Camp Jackson and Buckboard Flat (9000') to more than 4' of snow at North creek Pass (10,500'). Some sun and wind-exposed slopes have considerably less and there is still some grass poking out, but all said we're off to a good start down here.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
Recent Avalanches
There was a close call in the Logan area mountains on Saturday where two riders were caught in an avalanche. Once was partially buried. Both ended up ok. DETAILS HERE.
The partially buried rider's had is sticking up in the photo below.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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