Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, January 30, 2021
Heavy snowfall over the past week and strong southerly winds have overloaded north-facing slopes and the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes facing W-N-E at upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches are likely, and natural avalanches are possible in these areas. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential. Elsewhere, the avalanche danger is MODERATE and human-triggered avalanches are possible. Stay off of and out from under steep, northerly-facing avalanche terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
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Weather and Snow
Camp Jackson and Buckboard Snotel sites are both reporting 3" of new snow this morning so expect to find a couple more up high. Southerly winds that have been cranking for the last three days finally backed off around 9:00 p.m. before they began shifting around to the WNW. We should see clearing skies today becoming mostly sunny. NW winds will be mostly light and high temps will be in the low 20's. High pressure builds over the next few days with the next storm system being advertised for mid-week.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
A significant load of snow combined with wind has created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. The underlying snowpack is very weak and is comprised of loose, sugary faceted snow. Dense drifts and slabs now overly this poor snowpack structure and conditions are unstable. In our travels yesterday in the La Sals, the impacts of Wednesday's wind event were evident and can be expected to be found in the Abajos as well. In areas below treeline, last weekend's storm snow is less wind-affected. Near treeline, depth is variable and much of the snow has been stiffened by the wind. In these areas, the snow is more supportive and we experienced less cracking and collapsing than we had expected. In areas that have wind-drifted snow, the snowpack is considerably deeper with a moderately dense slab (4F to 1F hardness) overlying weak basal facets (F hardness) above the October and November crusts. Above treeline, large wind drifts and significant cross loading were easily observed on leeward aspects, ranging from west to north to east. Poor snowpack structure still plagues our mountains, with numerous persistent weak layers buried both underneath recent snow, as well as near the bottom of the snowpack. Strong winds have built stiff slabs on these weak layers and may be triggered by the weight of a skier or rider, especially in places where the slab is thin and weak.
Recent Avalanches
In my travels yesterday I observed a couple of slab avalanches that failed on weak, sugary snow near the ground on steep, NE aspects. Recent avalanches are clear signs of instability. Check back for more details on these slides.
Mathew Cozart reported observing several avalanches yesterday. Read his report here.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.