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Observation: Skyline

Observation Date
2/16/2025
Observer Name
Brett Kobernik
Region
Skyline
Location Name or Route
Rolfson & Ephraim Canyons
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Wind Loading
Cracking
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Viewed a number of avalanches today. Most of these appeared to be breaking on top of the Feb warming event layer. Fracture lines were 1 to 2 feet deep. At least one I viewed broke deeper into faceted snow. Wind never got as strong as I was anticipating. Mostly moderate speeds during the day. Enough to drift snow, however. The poor snowpack structure remains all across the Skyline. It is very obvious if you step off your skis or machine. In most areas, it is difficult to walk because you sink so deep into sugary facets.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Wind Drifted Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
All of the avalanches that I saw were on steep wind loaded slopes, mostly east facing. The weak layer appeared to be last week's lower density snow with this weeks higher density snow forming the slab. I'm assuming that this weakness will settle out in another day or so.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Problem #2 Comments
I was a little surprised not to see more avalanches that broke into older faceted snow. One of them definitely did. I speculate that this past storm didn't deliver enough of a load, even with the wind loading, to overload the facets. The storm only added about 1.3" of water on average across the range.
That said, I am very concerned still about the older layers of faceted snow. I think that we just don't have quite the right structure on top of them yet to produce deeper avalanches. Perhaps we will never see enough snow on top of these weak layers to make them reactive? There is no doubt that there are plenty of weak snow layers out there.
Comments
Every little storm is helping the riding conditions a bit in that more locations are becoming more supportable. On skis, things are pretty supportable in most locations. Machines are still punching through into sugar in many spots. Lots of deep trenching. Unfortunately, the wind on Saturday kinda stirred things up and wrecked a lot of the surface powder from the most recent storm. You will also still feel some chunky stuff under the new snow. Lots of little hidden surprises.
Photo below: Tracks from Saturday that have been obscured by the wind.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
High
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
High