AVALANCHE WARNING!! Tap for info

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 12, 2025
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing W-N-E-SE where recent slabs of wind drifted snow have increased the likelihood for human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. In these areas, human triggered avalanches a foot deep or more are possible. An outlying possibility also exists for full depth avalanches failing on weak facets near the ground. Minimize this type of risk by avoiding thin slope margins and areas of very steep, rocky, radical terrain.

Most other terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches involving thin slabs of wind drifted snow may be possible on isolated terrain features.
Many slopes have thin cover and rocks, stumps, and logs are lurking just beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: An inch or two of new snow covers Friday's grooming.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 1" 72 Hour Snow: 2" Season Total Snow: 60" Depth at Gold Basin: 30"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NE 5-10 G 14 Temp: 1° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 96%
Weather
Skies are clear and it's a bitter cold morning. Look for mostly sunny skies today with high temps in the mid teens at 10,000'. Light NE winds will shift to the NW this afternoon. The upcoming week will be mostly cold, dry, and clear. A long shot chance for a little snow develops on Friday but overall, the long term picture looks bleak.
General Conditions
The mountains picked up an inch or two of new snow yesterday. According to Reed Kennard "It did little to improve overall conditions but at least it helped hide all the wind affected snow" (read his observation here). Indeed, strong northerly winds have been the key player since Wednesday and unfortunately, no aspect or elevation has been spared. On Friday, Jake Etter reported "mediocre conditions" in the generally reliable North Woods, while Dave Garcia and I found a veritable moonscape of wind affected snow above treeline around on the east side of the range. We managed to find some soft snow on sheltered terrain below treeline but it was very hit and miss.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of faceted snow that formed during the December dry spell is our primary avalanche concern. This layer can be found about a foot below the surface on slopes facing W-N-E-SE. Near and above treeline, slabs of wind drifted snow have formed over top of this weak layer and this is where you are most likely to find trouble. Above treeline, however, northerly winds have created an erratic distribution of over-riding slabs, stripping and eroding snow off of many north and east aspects that are usually loaded. Cross-loading, however, is still a factor. This means you can be traveling through terrain that looks scoured and benign, and then suddenly find yourself on top of a hard slab with facets underneath. Suspect this scenario when the texture changes from rough and thin, to smooth, hard, and fat. Be alert to likely deposition zones such as gullies, depressions, and the leeward sides of terrain features. In these same areas, an outside chance lingers for avalanches to fail on weak facets near the ground. Avoiding extreme, rocky, slopes with a thin snowpack is the best way to mitigate this problem.
The snowpit below illiustrates the location of our current weak layers:
And, in our travels on Friday, Dave and I investigated a SE aspect at 11,600' where we continued to find the December drought layer as well as facets at the base of the snowpack. Stability tests produced no results but the adage that "structure trumps test results" keeps me leary of this kind of terrain. See the snowpit below.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.