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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, December 3, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing W-N-E at all elevations and on slopes facing SE near treeline and above. On these slopes, it is POSSIBLE for skiers and riders to trigger an avalanche failing on buried persistent weak layers of faceted snow.

The danger is LOW on slopes facing SW-S, and on low elevation SE aspects.

Conditions remain thin and rocks, stumps, and dead fall still pose a significant hazard.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We have several events coming up to kick off the winter season:
Thursday, December 5 - FREE Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk 6 PM at the Grand County Public Library
Saturday, December 7 - 17th Annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW) - Information and tickets available here.
Saturday, December 14 - 3rd Annual UAC Moab/LUNA Winter Kickoff Party, 6 PM at the MARC. Information and tickets available here.
Geyser Pass Road: The La Sal Loop Road will be closed above Pack Creek Monday-Friday from 8:30 to 5:30 for construction through December 18. Access to the Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead will be from Castle Valley or Sand Flats Road during these hours. Click here for more information.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 24"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SE 8 mph Temp: 26° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 209%
Weather
SE winds are blowing at just a whisper this morning and will shift to the SW and blow at 5 MPH today. It is 26 degrees in Gold Basin and we will see a high temperature of 30 degrees. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day. Overnight skies will clear, and lows will drop to 20 degrees. The remainder of the week looks sunny with highs in the mid-20s.
General Conditions
It's now been almost a week since the last storm more than doubled our snowpack and built a dense slab over weak, sugary facets in the process. Outward signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing have decreased and Eric's party on Sunday observed none (see this observation from Tim Mathews). To be clear however, poor snowpack structure remains and stability tests remain reactive. This means you can still trigger an avalanche and neither myself, nor any of our regular observers are yet willing to step onto terrain steeper than 30 degrees.
Last week's dense snow has made for supportable skiing and riding and conditions are far better than they should be considering how little snow there is. Strong sun and warm temperatures have cooked sun-exposed slopes and they'll be crusted over this morning. Low-angle, northerly aspects remain fast and soft, and you can stay above many of the rocks, stumps, and dead fall. It's still low tide out there, however, so use caution.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported from the backcountry.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The pre-Thanksgiving storm created all the ingredients necessary for avalanches. Natural activity has ceased because the snowpack has adjusted to the load. However, the weight of a skier or rider can still trigger an avalanche because of the poor snowpack structure that exists on slopes that face W-N-E-SE. Snow-savvy backcountry travelers, myself included, continue to avoid any steep slope that harbors the dangerous strong-over-weak setup.
This avalanche from the Wasatch is a great example of the instability we are currently dealing with. What stands out is that “most of this slope had a couple dozen ski tracks on it.” When persistent weak layers are involved, tracks on a slope do not indicate stability.
The photo below shows the current setup, with strong snow (the slab) on top of the weak layer.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.