Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, March 25, 2024

There is a MODERATE avalanche danger on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations where human triggered soft slab avalanches are possible. The avalanche danger is LOW in lower elevation terrain.

Today, avalanches will fail on a density change within the newest snow. During periods of heavy snowfall or wind transporting snow the likelihood of triggering an avalanche will increase.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Currently under overcast skies trailhead temperatures are in the mid 20's °F while the highest peaks are in the mid-teens °F. Winds are blowing lightly from the north gusting to the 20's MPH at the lower ridge-lines and blowing from the northwest in the low 20's gusting to the high 30's at the highest ridge-lines. There was another 1"-4" of new snow overnight bringing storm totals to 12"-27" of snow and .70"-2.40" water.

Today, look for overcast skies with increasing clouds and precipitation this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be 28-33°F with winds blowing from the north-northwest 10 gusting to 15 MPH at the 9,000' ridge-lines and 25 gusting to 30 MPH at the 11,000' ridge-lines. Look for 1"-3" of new snow with the off chance of 4"-5" and up to .50" water in select areas with increasing snowfall rates and winds this afternoon. There is a chance of lightning with the storm passing through. The freezing level should stay around 5,000' which means that with cloudy skies and colder temperatures the snow surface will stay soft making for excellent travel today.

Read the updated forecast discussion from our partners at the National Weather Service HERE.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, there were 16 avalanches reported to the Utah Avalanche Center. Most of these avalanches were human triggered and running on a density change within the newest snow, 4"-10" deep. A few of the avalanches were up to 18" deep. Some of these soft slab avalanches were breaking 10'-15' above backcountry travelers and in a few cases where people were caught and carried, they lost gear. There were reports of an increase in these avalanches during times of heavier snowfall.

Thanks to everyone that submitted avalanche reports and observations from yesterday. There were many well written and thoughtful discussions about decision making in the queue this morning.

Photo of a 10" deep skier triggered soft slab avalanche in Thomas Fork. West facing at 8,700' (photo: Lanza)

Read all the observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Yesterday's new snow was very reactive to riders. The layer of weakness in most cases was a density change a couple of inches above the melt-freeze crust or associated with increased snowfall rates throughout the day. This weak layer in the new snow was starting to settle out below 8,000' where it became more difficult to trigger avalanches as the day went on.

Today, it will be more difficult but not impossible to trigger a new snow avalanche failing on a density change within the newest snow. Any new snow that comes in this afternoon will be sensitive to backcountry travelers on steep slopes. IF the slope has had any wind affect it will be much more sensitive and like we saw yesterday you may be able to trigger soft slab avalanches 12"-16" deep breaking above you.

When an avalanche breaks above you vs at your skis or board it is more dangerous because you are now part of that avalanche and have less control over how you move through that terrain. Soft slab avalanches have enough power and oomph to take you of your feet and in terrain where they have the potential to gather more snow debris, piles can be quite deep.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Springtime in the mountains. What this means is that like the last weekend at your favorite ski resort most anything goes. You may see new snow avalanches, wind-drifted snow avalanches, wet snow avalanches, green-housing (filtered sun creating rapid warming of the snowpack at all elevations and aspects), glide avalanches, and thunder snow.

It's the time of year when it's easy to fall back on heuristic traps based on past experience, particularly familiarity. Keep your head about you when traveling in the mountains as even a small avalanche could have real consequences. Read more about heuristics and decision making from local avalanche researcher Ian McCammon HERE.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures