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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples on
Sunday morning, March 10, 2024
Today the avalanche danger is LOW.
Low danger does not mean NO danger, so don't let your guard down. Although unlikely, I think you could still trigger a small slide up to a foot deep on isolated slopes facing NW, N, NE, and E near and above treeline.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road to the winter trailhead is plowed and mostly dirt and mud.
Grooming: Trails were groomed yesterday by LUNA.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 3" Season Total Snow 146" Depth at Gold Basin 53"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SE 8-10 mph gusting 15 mph Temp 18° F Percent of Normal: 96%
Weather
Today will be another stunning day for the La Sals but a bit warmer with temperatures getting into the upper 30s F. Temperatures this morning are starting 6-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Winds should shift direction and blow from the SW with an approaching storm system. The jetstream will line up over the Utah/Arizona stateline early this coming week and bringing increased winds from the SW with snow likely starting Tuesday night. As the storm progresses, it looks like a "closed low" forms and stalls over southern California sending more moisture into the Four Corners region through the end of the week, and then skies clear by next weekend. It's too early to make a solid prediction on snowfall but fingers crossed.
General Conditions
The 3 inches of new snow late Thursday really improved conditions and people took advantage yesterday getting into alpine terrain. A persistent weak layer of old snow from Dec/Nov has become dormant as the last avalanches on this layer were about a month ago. Over the last four weeks, five storms have delivered snow with about 2" of SWE combined with a major wind event last weekend.
The weakest layer in the snowpack that caught my attention in Corkscrew Glades on Friday is a layer of obvious facets near the surface. We suspect it formed after last weekend's wind event and may be on most northerly facing slopes now capped by recent snow. A similar layer (or maybe the same layer) caused a slide on Wednesday, see below. One regular observer reported a few collapses yesterday on this layer near treeline where winds had drifted just a little snow.
Beautiful turns on Saturday (photo: S. Van Wetter)
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Eric discovered this slide on Wednesday triggered by a snowbike which highlights a weak layer near the top of the snowpack near Colorado Bowl on the east side of Geyser Pass (NE, 10,800') . This slope had a soft slab of wind drifted snow on top of a faceted layer.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's mostly green light conditions, but we'll be keeping an eye on a weak layer of facets just under the most recent snow. The good news is that it's easy to assess this layer by just digging about a foot deep to see if it's there. The other good news is that this layer didn't produce any avalanches yesterday (that we know of). It may or may not exist above treeline in the alpine and it likely needs just a little wind drifting on top of it to be a problem.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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