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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, March 7, 2024
The avalanche danger is MODERATE. You can still trigger an avalanche 1'-2' deep where slabs of wind drifted snow exist over faceted weak layers high up in the snowpack, primarily on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. In these same areas, slabs of wind drifted snow have added stress to a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Triggering an avalanche this deep is unlikely but the consequences would be devastating. Minimize your risk by avoiding steep, rocky, thinner snowpack areas and slopes with complex terrain features.
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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road to the winter trailhead is plowed. The surface is a mix of dirt and mud and sections of packed snow.
Grooming: Gavin groomed all trails with the snowcat yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 143" Depth at Gold Basin 53"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 5-15 G 20 Temp 24° Percent of Normal: 99%
Weather
A trough passing through well to the south will bring us some convective shower activity that's not likely to amount to more than a couple inches. Expect mostly cloudy skies, light southerly winds shifting to the northwest by afternoon, with high temps in the upper 20's. Friday looks mostly sunny with breezy, northwest winds in the morning, then shifting back to southerly by afternoon. Sunny and warmer conditions are on tap for the weekend.
General Conditions
In our travels up around Geyser Pass yesterday we continued to find soft snow in sheltered areas. Winds have been mostly light near treeline and below the past few days and most of the wind slabs that formed earlier in the week are pretty well stuck in place. You may still be able to trigger an old harder wind slab up in the alpine, or in areas where recent snow has drifted over a faceted weak layer.
On steep, northerly aspects, deep drifts have added stress to a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow near the base of the snowpack. This has increased the likelihood for triggering a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. We are uncertain to what degree this load has affected the PWL, and we've been wrestling with how to quantify the likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche for some time now. For more details on that see my recent blog post. The bottom line is that Dave and I are continuing to avoid big, steep, northerly facing slopes.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels yesterday, ranger Ben Chicken and I came across this recent moto-triggered avalanche near Colorado Bowl on the east side of Geyser Pass (NE, 10,800'). The culprit was a soft slab of wind drifted snow over top of a faceted weak layer about a foot deep. Although the snowpack was quite thin, the avalanche did not step down to the persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. That's the good news. The bad news is, we don't know how widely distributed the weak layer is that it ran on. Not a huge avalanche, it could still certainly boss you around.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Slabs of wind drifted snow formed earlier in the week have largely stabilized, but in some cases they are resting on top of faceted weak layers that were buried near the surface as the human triggered avalanche detailed above demonstrates. I don't think this problem is widespread, but the only way to make sure it's not there is to dig down a foot or two and make sure before you commit to a slope.
A lower likelihood, but much higher consequence scenario remains for avalanches failing down to the persistent weak layer (PWL) at the base of the snowpack. Deep wind-drifts have added more stress to this buried weak layer, particularly on northerly aspects right around treeline and above. I have not observed any natural activity as a result of this load, but it may have increased the likelihood for a human trigger. Again, this is a hard call to make. If you chose to venture into this terrain, minimize your risk by avoiding steep, rocky, thinner snowpack areas and slopes with complex terrain features.
Additional Information
Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.
Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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