Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SSE 13-17 Temp 32° Percent of Normal: 100%

Strong winds blew overnight out of the SSE. Winds will shift to the SSW today, and continue to blow 15-25 mph. Moisture delivered by an atmospheric river will generate accumulating snowfall across the Northern and central mountains through Thursday. The highest snowfall amounts will be concentrated across points North. Locally, we will see increasing clouds, blustery SW winds, and light flurries with no accumulation today. We may pick up 1-3" of snow on Wednesday.

Despite the strong winds, good skiing can still be found on sheltered terrain at the mid-elevations. In my travels yesterday, I found soft turns on the Northerlies in settled powder. The recent 2 inches of snow and strong winds have even created some unexpected and fun "wind-buff" conditions on the Southerlies. I observed shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow forming in isolated areas on the lee side of the highest elevation ridge lines. I would expect these small slabs to be sensitive today if you happen to be poking around in the alpine. These slabs of wind-drifted snow exist in the exact places I am currently avoiding. Steep and rocky alpine terrain remains the most likely place to trigger an avalanche failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer of facets. It is becoming increasingly more difficult to trigger an avalanche on this weak layer, but you are most likely to trigger one on slopes with a shallow snowpack. You can stack the odds in your favor by avoiding complex terrain features, and skiing in areas with deep snow. Grab your shovel, or simply probe around. I have been finding safe and fun skiing on many slopes at the mid-elevations with a depth of 200 cm or more.

See the most recent observations here.

Check out this video for a discussion of our current, "Low probability - high consequence" scenario.