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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, February 16, 2024
The overall danger rating on the Skyline is rated MODERATE.
The new snow hasn't increased the danger all that much.
Small fresh drifts in wind exposed very steep terrain may be sensitive today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: We picked up about 3 to 5 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. This should freshen up riding conditions especially in areas with no old tracks. The wind has been light to moderate from the southwest. Temperatures have been holding pretty steady in the mid 20s.
Mountain Weather: We'll see mostly cloudy skies today with the slight chance for light snow this afternoon. No accumulations are expected. Wind will shift and blow from the northwest and may increase in speed a bit. It won't get real windy but perhaps a little breezy in exposed areas. Temperatures should hold in the mid 20s. Saturday looks like the nicest day out of the next few. We should see a good amount of sun. There's another minor storm that will move through on Sunday bringing perhaps a few inches of snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Here's the deal. There really isn't all that much danger out there right now. However, you can always find trouble if you go looking for it. You might find some pockets of wind drifted snow in the higher very steep terrain that could crack out on you. Cut across small steep test slopes to see if the new snow is reactive or not.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow did not add enough weight to stress the old weak snow at the base of the snowpack. That old snow is still worth a mention though. We haven't seen any avalanches breaking into that old snow for weeks now. It seems unlikely that a person will trigger something breaking deep today. The problem is that the old snow from December remains quite weak in areas with a shallower snowpack (less than about 3 feet total depth) and this makes me nervous enough to avoid steep slopes in those areas.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.