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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Wednesday morning, January 24, 2024
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remains on steep slopes facing W-N-E at all elevations. Skiers and riders are LIKELY to trigger avalanches breaking 2 feet deep or more. These are dangerous avalanche conditions that require conservative decision making.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing SW-S-SE at all elevations. Signs of instability will be less obvious on these slopes, but human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain POSSIBLE.
Don't allow the new snow and sunny skies to lure you into a dangerous situation today, stick to slopes that are less than 30 degrees in steepness.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road was plowed on Monday. The road remains snow covered and AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Matt rolled out Gold Basin through Geyser Pass on Tuesday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow Tr" 72 Hour Snow 8" Season Total Snow 90" Base Depth at Gold Basin 40"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 3 Temp 21˚ F
Weather
Morning cloud cover should dissipate as the day rolls on and skies will be mostly sunny. High temperatures will climb to the upper 20's. Light winds shift to the West, and blow 5-10 mph. A long-wave trough impacts our region tomorrow, bringing a decent round of snowfall. Noontime on Thursday through midnight on Friday looks to be the time for the highest snowfall rates. A ridge of high pressure builds in late on Friday and with it comes warm temperatures and sunshine for the weekend and early next week.
General Conditions
The skiing remains excellent. Winds have been remarkably calm for the last several days and the sun has stayed behind the clouds. All aspects offer great riding conditions in creamy, medium density powder. The sun will get to solar aspects today, so get it before it's gone. The snowpack is starting to feel supportive under our skis, which has really helped riding conditions. But step off your skis or board, and foot penetration is still almost to the ground, especially on Northerly aspects. This tells us the underlying snowpack is still quite weak. Throughout my travels on Monday and Tuesday, I continued to experience collapsing of the snowpack on a variety of aspects and elevations. A cohesive slab exists on top of weak faceted snow, this structure is widespread, and remains sensitive. Avalanches up to 2 feet deep are possible on this layer. Alpine terrain offers up an even greater danger, where slopes that have been previously loaded by the wind can produce avalanches that are 2 to 6 feet deep.
To see a report of my travels from Monday click here.
Check out the video below from Tuesday's tour up Noriega's Ridge where I continued to find very weak snow.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The most recent storm dropped 8 inches of snow and 1.2” of water on Sunday and Monday. We refer to this as incremental loading of our snowpack. It is not a big sudden load that will bring the house down, but it is enough of a load to keep the danger elevated. Collapsing continues to be widespread on a variety of aspects and elevations. The suspect weak layer is buried about 2 feet below the snow surface, and is easily observed in snow pits. Human triggered avalanches up to 2 feet deep remain likely. Above treeline, leeward slopes hold deep hard slabs of previously wind-drifted snow and dangerous avalanches can break 2-6 feet deep.
The persistent weak layer problem is not limited to the shady slopes. Southerly aspects have poor snowpack structure, and we are still seeing poor results in stability tests. You may not experience collapsing on some these slopes, but it remains possible for riders to trigger avalanches up to two feet deep.
The strategic mind-set for now, is entrenchment. We are dealing with a well-established persistent weak layer and it simply needs more time to stabilize. Dealing with such a weakness requires patience and the strategy remains avoiding slopes that are steeper than 30 degrees.
The weak layer is easily observed roughly 2 feet down (NE Aspect 10,730').
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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