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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Tuesday morning, January 16, 2024
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on all steep slopes facing W-N-E, near and above treeline, and on slopes facing NW-N-E below. Human triggered avalanches involving a buried persistent weak layer are likely in these areas.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing SW-S-SE at all elevations, and on W and E aspects below treeline. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible.
Don't allow today's beautiful weather, sunny skies, and recent new snow to lure you into a dangerous situation. These are prime conditions for an avalanche accident. Backcountry travelers need to exercise conservative decision making today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is scheduled to be plowed today. Expect the road to be closed this morning while road crews are working.
Grooming: LUNA rolled Gold Basin through Geyser Pass on Sunday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 6" Season Total Snow 77" Base Depth at Gold Basin 35"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 19 G 22 Temp 7˚ F
Weather
Today will be a beautiful sunny day in the mountains. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 15 mph. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper teens. Clouds and scattered snow showers will move in tonight, as another low pressure trough dives down from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday morning through Thursday. This will mostly affect points North, but we should see some light accumulations on Wednesday with 1-3" possible. Sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures return for Thursday.
General Conditions
We have received 6" of snow since Saturday night, and the snow surface remains quite good in sheltered areas. January has been an active month in the La Sals, and we have seen about 3' of snow. That's the good news, however, all of this new snow has settled into a cohesive slab and it sits on top of a very weak foundation. Red Flag indicators of unstable snow have been in your face the last two days. Multiple backcountry parties have reported widespread collapsing at all elevations. These problems are not limited to shady slopes, we have seen collapsing, poor snowpack structure, and stability tests indicating unstable snow on Southerly aspects as well.
I was up yesterday and red flags of unstable snow were obvious. See my field work here.
Eric tells the story of the past week in this great video. Check it out.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday while stomping around the low angle slopes adjacent to Coyote Chute, I remotely triggered this large avalanche in the Horse Creek Chutes. This avalanche is about 1,500' wide with an average depth of 4' and a maximum depth of 6.5'. Get the full details here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A slab of cohesive snow now exists above a persistent weak layer of faceted snow on all aspects. This weak layer formed during the December dry spell. Red flag indicators of instability have been obvious during field work Sunday and Monday. Collapsing of the snowpack has been widespread at all elevations, snow pit tests continue to produce propagation, and large, remotely triggered avalanches show us how unstable things really are. The writing is on the wall, and it says we have a dangerous snowpack.
The Horse Creek avalanche is a great example of the snowpack structure in alpine terrain. Large, hard slabs of wind-drifted snow rest on top weak, faceted snow, and they are hanging in the balance just waiting for a trigger. Slopes like these present the most danger. The danger is not limited to Northerly aspects, as we have started to see collapsing and poor pit results on Southerly slopes as well.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds have hammered the mountains alternately scouring and drifting snow onto all aspects. On steep, northerly facing slopes, slabs of wind drifted snow are stressing the "December drought layer," and deep and dangerous avalanches are likely in these areas. These older hard slabs present the most dangerous conditions. Last night, Northwest winds picked up enough to blow and drift the 6" of new snow into fresh soft slabs. These recent soft slabs of wind-drifted snow will be most prominent above treeline on all aspects.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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