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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Thursday morning, December 28, 2023
Today there is a MODERATE danger of triggering an avalanche involving persistent weak layers of faceted snow. Human-triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on slopes near treeline and above that face NW-N-NE-E. The danger will be most pronounced on slopes that have been previously loaded by blowing and drifting snow.
Snow cover is still very thin, travel is difficult, and many hazards exist including rocks, logs, and stumps beneath the surface.
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High
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Road Conditions: The road is plowed but the surface remains soft. AWD with good tires are required.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed since Sunday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 42" Base Depth at Gold Basin 24"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 6 G 11 Temp 13˚ F
Weather
Today will be another beautiful day in the mountains. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 20's. Winds will blow from the North around 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph on the ridges. High pressure and sunshine dominate through the weekend. New Year's Day brings some clouds and maybe light snow flurries, but no real accumulation.
General Conditions
The 8 inches of snow that fell on Saturday has slightly improved conditions, but unfortunately, there is still not enough coverage for serious skiing and riding. Recent strong winds from the Northwest have scoured and stripped snow off the high peaks. Yesterday my party bailed on our bigger objective and we found the best option to be grassy slopes in low-angle meadows. See our report here. Other options include nordic skiing on the groomed summer roads. There is enough snow on the ground to bury some beacons and practice your rescue skills. Backcountry skiing is generally a game of patience, but at least we have options for enjoying winter in the mountains right now.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
On our tour up Horse Creek yesterday, we observed this small natural avalanche involving wind-drifted snow. This slide most likely occurred on Sunday or Monday during the peak of the strong winds. This is a NE aspect around 11,200 ft. This D1 avalanche is enough to knock you off your feet, rake you through some rocks, or push you off a cliff.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overall the snow pack is very shallow, with an average depth of about two feet. The slopes that hold the most snow are where we are looking to ski right now. These are the same slopes where you can find avalanche danger involving persistent weak layers of faceted snow. The cold, shady slopes on the North side of the compass have very weak snow throughout the pack. The good news is a lot of slopes lack a proper slab right now. Be sure to read my recent obs for the nuts and bolts of it all.
To get avalanches we need strong snow over weak snow, or a slab on top of a weak layer. Slopes that might have a slab in place are going to be the slopes that were previously loaded by the strong Northerly winds that blew Sunday and Monday. It will be possible for a skier or rider to trigger an avalanche breaking down deep into old, weak snow on these previously loaded slopes. I would be suspicious of any slope in the alpine that looks fat and filled in. Dig down and feel for strong snow on top of the weak sugary facets. If the snow feels supportive beneath your feet, chances are good that you have found a slab.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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