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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Sunday morning, April 9, 2023
The snowpack is generally stable and the avalanche danger is LOW. Two concerns are (1) wet-loose avalanches on steep sun-exposed slopes that face W-S-E, and (2) isolated pockets of wind-drifted snow in exposed terrain at the upper elevations.
A solid overnight refreeze should keep wet snow at bay today, but if you find yourself in steep, sunlit terrain today, keep an eye on the snow surface. If you start seeing signs that the snow surface becoming damp and unsupportable, it's time to re-evaluate your terrain and change your aspect to a cooler, more shady slope.
Risk is inherent in mountain travel; getting caught in even a small avalanche could have serious consequences in steep, rocky terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is open. 4x4 recommended. Expect the road to be wet, sloppy, and muddy in the afternoon.
Grooming: Trails were groomed into Gold Basin on Wednesday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 315" Base Depth at Gold Basin 104"
Temp 20 F Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 12 G 15
Weather
This morning, mountain temperatures are currently hovering around 20 F in Gold Basin. Winds transitioned more west-northwesterly overnight, and are now averaging near 10 mph with gusts near 15 mph.
Today, skies will be mostly sunny, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid-40s. The northwest winds should remain calm, averaging 5-10 mph. While today will be warm, the big warm-up comes over the next 4 days as mountain temperatures could reach the 50s F.
General Conditions
Strong winds, warm temperatures, and intense April sun are taking a toll on the snowpack. Yesterday, we found high-elevation North faces to have the best snow. Lose some elevation, and the skiing gets slow and manky. With cooler overnight temperatures, solar aspects will be crusted over this morning. You can travel safely on the solars early in the day, but as things heat up you may want to move to more Northerly aspects to avoid wet avalanche activity. You may still encounter shallow, soft slabs of wind-drifted snow in isolated areas on slopes with a Northerly or Easterly component to their aspect.
With the incoming extremely warm weather, I would expect avalanche danger to be on the rise again early next week.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported yesterday.
On Friday, a solo skier triggered this shallow, soft slab of wind-drifted snow in Old Reliable on an NNE aspect at 11,300 ft.
See the La Sal avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack is generally stable and natural and human-triggered avalanches are unlikely. In isolated areas, you may encounter:
  1. Wet-loose avalanches on steep sun-exposed slopes. Observers Friday reported solar aspects becoming very wet in the afternoon. Today is a repeat performance with sunny skies and temperatures above freezing. If you see roller balls or notice saturated, slushy snow, it is time to change aspects. As the temperatures climb over the next few days, and the snowpack begins not fully freezing overnight, we will begin seeing more widespread wet activity.
  2. Pockets of fresh wind drifted snow along exposed ridges and in open terrain at the upper elevations.
Multiple parties have been skiing steep lines in big terrain lately. Keep in mind that low danger does not mean no danger. Here are some things to consider if you are heading for big objectives today:
  • Travel one at a time through avalanche terrain. Leave the rest of the party in a safe spot ready to perform a rescue
  • Communicate with other parties, and do not ski above other groups
  • Consider the consequences of your terrain choices - what will happen if it slides? Are you above a cliff or terrain trap?
  • Stay well back from cornices, and avoid traveling beneath large cornices.
Additional Information
This graph is from the Snotel site near the Geyser Pass Winter TH. The black line is our current season. Total SWE is 230% of normal.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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