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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, March 31, 2023
There is a MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches involving unstable slabs of wind drifted on all aspects near treeline and above. The danger is most pronounced on slopes that face NW-NE-SE, but isolated drifting may be found on slopes with a southerly aspect. Avoid steep slopes that have more than about 8" of recently deposited, wind drifted snow.

Cornices are becoming very large in some areas. Increased wind loading will make them more sensitive so give them a wide berth.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is open. Expect to find a few inches of fresh snow and some drifting in areas. 4x4 recommended.
Grooming: Trails were last groomed on Saturday.
On Monday, March 27, two snowmobilers were riding in the Oquirrh Mountains. One was caught, carried, and fully buried in a very large avalanche. His partner, friends and family, Utah County Search and Rescue, Utah Department of Public Safety, and LifeFlight participated in the rescue, but he sadly did not survive. The preliminary avalanche report can be found HERE.
Our sincerest condolences go out to everyone affected by this tragic avalanche.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 7" 72 Hour Snow 7" Season Total Snow 301" Base Depth at Gold Basin 110"
Temp 15° F Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WSW 13 G 22

Weather
The storm has moved on to the east. Today look for gradually clearing skies, breezy, westerly winds blowing in the 20-25 mph range, and high temperatures in the upper 20's at 10,000'. A warm, dry, and windy weekend is in store with temperatures climbing into the upper 30's on Saturday, and low 40's on Sunday. Get it while you can as cold air and stormy weather returns on Monday.

General Conditions
Things got pretty wild out there yesterday with periods of heavy snowfall and sustained SW winds blowing 30-40 mph with gusts in the 50's. State Parks Ranger, Jeff Arbon and I took a trip up to the Bald Mesa/Warner Lake area where we experienced periods of full whiteout conditions. Brief periods of clearing revealed plumes of blowing snow off the high peaks, while powder conditions were quite good in sheltered terrain. Peak instability likely occurred sometime late yesterday afternoon, but with limited snow and water weight (4"-7" at around 0.5" of SWE) I don't suspect much activity beyond some possible shallow, wind slab releases. You can still trigger a slab of drifted snow today on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that show signs of recent wind loading. Suspect slopes that have more than about 8" of drifted snow.
Cornices have grown huge in some areas and are teetering on the edge. Give them a wide berth as we have at least one report of one breaking off and triggering an avalanche.

Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Dynamic weather day! Blowing snow mixed with clouds on the high north faces.
Recent Avalanches
Taylor Martin reported a natural cornice fall that triggered an avalanche in Red Snow Cirque on Tuesday. Cornice fall remains an issue.
See the complete La Sal avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds yesterday created slabs of drifted snow on leeward slopes near treeline and above. Westerly winds today will continue to move snow around. The problem will be most pronounced on upper elevation slopes with a north or easterly aspect, but isolated drifting or cross-loading may also occur on slopes with a southerly aspect. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges. Shooting cracks in drifted snow are a sure sign of instability. Backcountry travelers should avoid steep slopes that have more than about 8" of recently deposited of wind drifted snow.
Additional Information
Sorry bikers, it's going to be awhile!
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.