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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, March 22, 2023
There is CONSIDERABLE danger at mid and upper elevations in the backcountry. People are likely to large cornice falls, soft slab or loose avalanches of storm snow, and/or 1' to 2' thick slab avalanches of wind drifted snow on slopes steeper than 30°. Periods of heavy snowfall and drifting will elevate the danger during the day, natural avalanches will be increasingly possible, and HIGH danger is likely to develop in some upper elevation terrain by evening. Long running natural avalanches are likely tonight.
  • Conditions are dangerous so make conservative decisions, evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and stay well away from and out from under those big cornices.
  • This evening and tonight people should avoid being in avalanche terrain and stay well clear of avalanche runouts.
Low
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Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Periods of heavy snowfall and drifting by increasing winds from the south-southwest will elevate the danger today, and HIGH danger is likely to develop on some upper elevation slopes by evening. Small avalanches of storm snow are also possible at lower elevations as new snow stacks up on slopes with a base solidly refrozen snow. Be sure to stay well out from under potential avalanche terrain (slopes steeper than about 30°) if you plan on spending the evening or night in the backcountry.
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 4 inches of new snow overnight. It's 26° F this morning, and there is 131 inches of total snow. The wind is blowing from the south-southwest around 30 mph this morning, having gusted in the mid 60s overnight at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Here is the NWS point forecast (36 hrs) for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow. High near 30. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Wind chill values as low as 7. West southwest wind 14 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
Thursday: Snow showers. High near 28. Wind chill values as low as 10. West wind 11 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
The National Weather service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Logan Zone south of the state line and a Winter Storm Warning north of it. I expect dangerous avalanche conditions to continue to develop today and tonight. Snow showers and periods of heavier snowfall will continue through the week...
Recent Avalanches
  • Observers report widespread shallow slab avalanches of storm snow yesterday from across the zone including, Logan Dry and Wellsville and Mt. Naomi Wildeness.
  • For a list of recent avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
  • It was a bit more active in the Wasatch Range in the last few days due to wind drifted snow. Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • People are likely to trigger soft slab or loose avalanches of storm snow today on slopes steeper than 30° at mid and upper elevations.
  • Natural avalanches are most likely and storm slabs most easily triggered during periods of heavy snowfall and/or drifting.
  • The snow on lower elevation slopes facing northwest through east is quite a bit deeper than it normally is this time of year and avalanches of storm snow are possible in steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's increasing winds are blowing from the south-southwest, more than strong enough to drift the fresh snow. Expect to find sensitive cornices and fresh wind slabs in upper and mid elevation avalanche starting zones.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow, large cornice falls, or 1 to 2' thick wind slabs, are likely for people to trigger in windy terrain at upper elevations.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • The overhanging cornices on the high ridges have become huge with recent storms, so continue to stay well away and out from under them.
  • Avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on a persistent weak layer buried 1 to 3 feet deep are possible, and some still might be triggered remotely or from a distance.
Additional Information
Small natural soft slab avalanches were widespread across the Logan Zone and in the Mount Naomi Wilderness yesterday, 3-21-23...(R.Choi)
Natural avalanches of wind drifted storm snow in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness as seen from the valley on 3-21-23
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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