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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 12, 2023
There is CONSIDERABLE danger in all upper and mid elevation terrain. People are likely to trigger dangerous avalanches and naturals are possible in the backcountry on slopes steeper than 30°. Elevated conditions and MODERATE danger also exist on steep slopes at lower elevations.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel today.
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Weather and Snow
Avalanches of storm snow and wind drifted snow remain likely at upper and mid elevations. This week's productive storm elevated the danger of soft slab and loose avalanches of new snow as well as overloading slopes with a buried persistent weak layer near the ground.
It's 22° F and there is 91 inches of total snow. This morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, winds are blowing 25-30 mph from the southwest, and the temperature is 17° F. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports a couple feet of heavy new snow with a whopping 3.5" of SWE from the recent storm.
Today, we can expect mostly sunny conditions, with high temperatures at 8500' around 32° F and 10 mph winds blowing from the southwest. Tonight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures around 17° F and fairly light winds from the southeast. Tomorrow will be partly sunny with high temperatures around 35° F and 10 to 15 mph wind from the south.
*The moisture train continues to march on with another storm on tap for late this weekend, MLK day, and more beyond that.
Recent Avalanches
It was an active day yesterday for the mountains of northern Utah, and there was lots of large natural avalanche activity reported. Riders reported easily triggering wind slabs up to 2 feet deep in somewhat unexpected terrain in Providence Canyon early in the morning. Short VIDEO.
I noticed evidence of fairly widespread natural avalanches in the Wellsville Range, with a few new ones visible above Mendon and Wellsville, some running into lower elevation bench areas.
Visibility of the high country in the Bear River Range was very limiting, and we look forward to views today. Please report what you see out there if you get out.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Cooler temperatures last night will help to set up the saturated new snow and lower the danger of wet avalanches at lower elevations. At upper and mid elevations, heavy snow and drifting from south and west winds elevated the danger of soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow. People could trigger soft slab avalanches of new snow 1-2 feet thick even in sheltered terrain. Loose avalanches are also possible in steep terrain, and small avalanches overrunning a slope with buried persistent weak layers could cause a much larger hard slab avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds in the past couple days transported plenty of snow. The wind picked up snow in fetch areas on windward slopes and in low angled terrain and deposited it on lee slopes and in terrain influenced deposition areas. The drifting built fresh slabs of thicker snow and added more weight to slopes with poor snow structure.
  • A smaller wind slab avalanche overrunning a slope with a poor snow structure could cause a much larger avalanche to step down to our now deeply buried November persistent weak layer.
  • As always, look for and avoid drifts on the lee side of prominent ridges, on corniced slopes, and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, mid-slope break overs, gully walls, sub ridges, saddles, and sinks.
  • Human-triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are possible in drifted areas.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • People or smaller natural avalanches could trigger large and dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer.
  • An avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer could still be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
  • Natural or triggered avalanches failing on sugary weak snow near the ground could be very large and long running, perhaps descending into lower elevations.
General Announcements
  • Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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