Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, December 15, 2022
The avalanche danger rating remains CONSIDERABLE today.
Human triggered avalanches 1 to 3 feet deep are likely.
Avalanches can be triggered from a distance so it is important to pay attention to what is above you.
Avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30˚.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: We've had periods of light snowfall over the last 24 hours adding a few more inches. Storm totals since Sunday are in the 15 to 18 inch range. The wind was slightly breezier on Wednesday than I thought it would be. It definitely was drifting snow in the more exposed terrain. It looks like there are still moderate speeds along the ridges from the west. Temperatures have remained cold with highs on Wednesday in the mid teens. It's around 10˚F in the high country this morning.
Mountain Weather: It'll be yet another day of cloudy skies, potential light snowfall and cold temperatures. Temperatures won't warm much more than where they are right now. Wind will be from the northwest in the moderate speed category along the ridges. We could see an inch or two of snow accumulation. Skies start to clear on Friday with continued cold temperatures. The weekend looks really clear with temperatures rebounding.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported on the Skyline but visibility has been really bad and not many people have been venturing out all that much. There was another skier caught, carried and injured in an avalanche again in the Salt Lake mountains on Wednesday. They sustained serious injuries and had to be rescued. The reason I mention this is that the snowpack at the accident site is very similar to many locations on the Skyline right now.
There have actually been three accidents that have many similarities to terrain and snowpack here on the Skyline:
Loafer Canyon, Payson: DETAILS HERE
Pink Pine, SLC Mtns: DETAILS HERE
Neffs Canyon, SLC Mtns: DETAILS HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer from the November dry spell continues to be our biggest threat. (WEAK LAYER DETAILED TIMELINE HERE) It will continue to cause dangerous conditions ESPECIALLY INTO THIS WEEKEND!!
You're only defense with this situation is to stick to lower angle slopes and make sure there aren't steeper slopes above you. It is likely that our snowpack will stabilize at some point. I actually found a location on Wednesday where the loose sugary faceted layer has gained strength and produced stubborn test results. This is good news but there are WAY more locations where the snowpack remains weak and unstable compared to places like the one I found. Have patience and continue to avoid avalanche terrain until the snowpack is stable.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.