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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, December 8, 2022
There is a scary MODERATE avalanche danger and people could trigger dangerous avalanches in the backcountry. Elevated avalanche conditions exist because of a widespread buried persistent weak layer and a growing slab of stiffer snow above it. Areas with more dangerous conditions exist on drifted upper elevation slopes, where people could trigger 1-3' deep hard slab avalanches of previously drifted snow. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.

You'll find nice powder and much safer conditions in lower-angle terrain, sheltered slopes, and at lower elevations.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Thanks for showing up Tuesday night and supporting the UAC. It was great to see everybody at the Cache! You made our annual Pray for Snow party/fundraiser a big success.

Join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view the full list of events for the week.
Join us Saturday, December 10th at Beaver Mountain for FREE UAC and USU Beacon Clinic. Find more info HERE.
Weather and Snow
Elevated avalanche conditions exist at all elevations in the backcountry. Last week's heavy snow and drifting overloaded many slopes plagued by buried weak layers and poor snow structure. Dangerous human-triggered avalanches remain possible for people to trigger, especially on previously drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes. No new avalanches were reported since the weekend, but observers continue to report audible collapses or "wumpfs" from across the zone. Collapsing indicates unstable snow and real potential for dangerous slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Tuesday in Providence Canyon we triggered a couple wumpfs, but we also noted mixed test results and apparently improving overall stability. As more snow overloads slopes with buried persistent weak layers the danger will rise significantly. Avalanche forecaster Nikki Champion explains;

Today will start cloudy, becoming mostly sunny in the mountains with high temperatures at 8500' around 19° F and 13 to 15 mph west winds. Snow is expected tomorrow, with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation possible. Avalanche conditions will surely worsen this weekend, as a prolonged period of snowy weather is expected Saturday night through early next week, with potential for substantial accumulations in the Bear River Range.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported in the backcountry since a pretty active weekend when several remotely triggered and some large natural avalanches were reported.
Several people ventured into the backcountry terrain on the Beaver Backside on Wednesday and some reported collapsing, but no avalanches were reported from the area.
Remember, when you leave the ski area, you are entering the backcountry and you could trigger dangerous avalanches.

***See our updated list of observed avalanches from across Utah HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow from roughly 16 days of clear and cold weather in November that now has 1-3' feet of snow on top of it. Last weekend, this layer produced both small and large avalanches, and the snow is slow to stabilize on many slopes.
  • We've found buried layers of sugary snow at all elevations and on slopes facing every direction. The persistent weak layer (PWL) problem has the potential to get worse as widespread slopes with poor snow structure are overloaded, and the problem is likely to be an issue for a while.
  • Areas plagued by a very sensitive PWL consisting of buried feathers of surface hoar are also widespread, but we've found them mostly in sheltered low and mid-elevation terrain. Persistent weak layers consisting of surface hoar are notoriously tricky, often surprising and sometimes catching experienced avy pros off guard. Avalanches failing on buried surface hoar may occur on lower angled slopes than you might expect.
  • Red Flags indicating a persistent weal layer instability will include audible collapses or wumpfs and shooting cracks.
  • Slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely to be remotely triggered from a distance, hopefully from above or from an adjacent slope, and not from below.
Additional Information
Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).

Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter.
  • Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware.
  • Inspect your shovel and probe.
  • Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
  • Practice Companion Rescue with your backcountry partners.
General Announcements
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
The Tony Grove Road and other forest roads in the Logan Ranger District are not maintained for wheeled vehicles in the winter.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.