A cold dry period for two and half weeks in mid November resulted in a very weak snowpack. A persistent weak layer of faceted snow developed at all elevations on aspects facing W-N-E. This weak foundation of snow was buried by seven inches of new snow on 11/29. Yesterday morning we added five inches of snow and half an inch of water. Today's storm will continue to add more weight and stress on top of buried weak layers. The slab is slowly building on top of a very fragile snowpack. Small incremental loading can create deceptively dangerous avalanche conditions. Rather than bringing it all down at once, we slowly add stress to the snowpack until finally it fails. Audible collapsing and cracking are obvious signs that the weak snow is failing. Today is a good day to stick to low angle slopes and dense trees. This storm is going to be the first real test of this buried persistent weak layer. The best strategy is to not mess around with it and give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load. We could see a natural avalanche cycle starting later today and tonight.

South winds will pick up once again as the storm continues. Southerlies will blow in the 15-20 mph range. There will be plenty of new snow available for transport. Look for fresh slabs of wind drifted snow developing near treeline and above. Wind drifted snow has the potential to form on any aspect, but fresh drifts will be most obvious on leeward slopes that face W-N-E.