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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 27, 2022
Near record daytime temperatures, and two nights without a re-freeze have created dangerous conditions in the backcountry.
The avalanche danger will quickly rise to CONSIDERABLE on steep, sun exposed slopes. Most due south facing slopes are dry but natural and human triggered loose, wet avalanches are likely, and wet slab releases are possible on adjacent sun exposed slopes..
On slopes facing NW-N-NE-E, melt water percolating down to the buried persistent weak layer may increase the likelihood for human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep. A fair amount of uncertainty surrounds this scenario but current conditions make this kind of terrain high risk and low reward. Avalanche terrain should be avoided today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Temperatures again did not get below freezing last night and they're basically where they were yesterday at this time ranging from the mid 40's at Geyser Pass Trailhead to the mid 30's up high. The heat wave continues today as the ridge axis moves overhead. High temps will again rise into the 50's under mostly sunny skies. Tonight will be slightly cooler but still not cool enough for a good freeze, and Monday will again see temps near 50F. By Monday afternoon we should start to see some clouds ahead of a low pressure system making its way inland from the coast of Southern California. We should see some snow on Tuesday.
Snowpack
Another night without a refreeze and record breaking temps on tap for today are not a good set up for snow and avalanche conditions. Most surfaces will be punchy and unsupportable this morning, and they will quickly become wet and sloppy as the day heats up. As temps soar, loose, wet avalanches will become likely on steep, sun exposed slopes, especially in rocky or cliffy areas, and we may even see some wet slab releases.
On slopes facing NW-N-NE-E, we still have a persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow that formed during the Jan-Feb dry period. The weakest snow exists right around treeline on slopes with a northeasterly component. As melt water percolates down through the snowpack, avalanches failing on this weak layer may become increasingly more likely. A fair amount of uncertainty surrounds this scenario but current conditions make this kind of terrain high risk and low reward.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Recent Avalanches
There are no recent reports of avalanches from the Abajo range.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Due south facing slopes are mostly dry, but the avalanche danger will quickly rise on adjacent sun exposed slopes today. Both loose wet, and wet slab avalanches are possible. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes that are wet and sloppy.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of dry, sugary faceted snow still exists on NW-N-NE-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2'-3' thick. The weakest snow exists right around treeline and this is the most likely zone for triggering an avalanche. As more melt water percolates down through the snowpack, avalanches failing on this weak layer may become increasingly more likely.
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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