Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, February 27, 2022
DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE AGAIN LIKELY TODAY!!
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on the Manti Skyline.
Stay off of slopes steeper than about 30˚ that face west, north and east.
Avalanches can be triggered from a distance right now so also avoid being below steep slopes.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Saturday was a spectacular day in the mountains with clear skies, slightly warmer temperatures than what we've seen recently and light northwest wind. Riding conditions remain excellent. Aside from dangerous avalanche conditions, this has been a great week for deep powder enthusiasts. Overnight ridgetop temperatures were in the low 20s. Drainage and canyon bottoms were still fairly cold with readings around 10˚F.
Mountain Weather
Today will be another nice day although we'll see some high clouds move through. Temperatures will get into the low 30s. Southwest wind will increase in speed a bit this afternoon but generally looks like it'll remain in the light to moderate speed categories.
Recent Avalanches
There were at least two more snowmobile triggered avalanches on Saturday. That makes three days in a row of large human triggered avalanches. Any money on today being the fourth?
This one was triggered by sledders that were in flat safe terrain about 1/4 mile away from the avalanche path. Black Mountain, 6 Mile Canyon. Photo - Calvin Hawley:
A snowmobiler triggered a pretty wide cornice fall and got bossed around a bit and partially buried on the not so steep slope below the cornice. This avalanche is not really directly related to the current buried faceted Persistent Weak Layer but it's a good reminder to watch out for cornices especially right after a storm. Photo - Calan Cook:
I continue to find many more large avalanches that released naturally during last Wednesday's storm. Below is an example from Canal Canyon:
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent avalanches are the number one red flag of unstable snow. If you see recent avalanches, this means dangerous conditions are present. There is no shortage of visible avalanches around the range and I suspect this has kept a lot of people safe. The danger still remains elevated today. The buried faceted Persistent Weak Layer is still very likely to produce avalanches today if someone provokes a steep slope. West, north and east facing slopes are the most likely places to find trouble. This problem is going to stick around for a while.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.