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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, January 21, 2022
Most terrain has generally LOW danger.
Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer on steep slopes facing NW through E. Likely trigger points include thin, rocky areas, slopes with steep convexities, and areas of more extreme terrain.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Clouds have moved into the area and we'll see a chance for a couple inches of snow today. Winds will shift to the NE but remain relatively light. High temps will be in the low 20's. Mostly sunny skies will return on Saturday and last through the weekend. Another high pressure ridge builds over the west coast and we'll remain under a mostly dry, northwest flow through next week with a couple of minor disturbances sliding through the region.
Snowpack
Forecasted amounts of new snow today won't effect the avalanche danger. Over the past few weeks, the snow surface has been subject to the ravages of wind and sun and conditions are variable. Depths across the range average 2'-3' deep above about 9000'. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack. Snow from two storm events in December have formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches failing on this persistent weak layer are becoming increasingly unlikely, but they may still be possible on steep, northerly facing slopes.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of stronger snow over weaker snow has developed on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Time and warmer temperatures have helped heal this buried persistent weak layer, or at least seen it move into a state of dormancy. The odds of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer have grown increasingly unlikely, but human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep are still possible on steep, northerly facing slopes at upper elevations.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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